The security vacuum in North Africa's Sahel region has long been a haven for various criminal and Islamist militant networks, whilst other extremist groups are known to operate around Libya and Algeria's coastal regions. The rise of Islamic State threatens to add a transnational dimension to the intent of these groups, writes Tom Crooke.
Upcoming elections will be among the most hotly contested in recent years. Yet, despite the centrality of emotionally charged issues such as social welfare, corruption and economic recession, we are very unlikely to see a resurgence of anti-government protests, writes Zoe Wakefield.
A ‘Yes' vote on Scottish independence would have had damaging consequences for security in both Scotland and the UK. While a further devolution of powers is inevitable, negotiators are wise to leave defence off the table, writes Rachel Hankey.
Libya is paralysed by fighting between militia groups, and the new government faces an uphill struggle in preventing a slide into chaos, writes Tom Crooke.
A full-scale election audit has restarted and, while further disruptions are likely, indications are that a new Afghan president will be appointed by the autumn. A clear mandate to govern is vital to the country's stability but continues to elude both candidates. If the final result is not accepted, the country faces political paralysis, disaffection…
Despite the speed and success of ISIS's recent advance, its reliance on the support of aggrieved Sunni groups means it is unlikely to make significant inroads into Southern Iraq over the coming weeks. Showcase attacks targeting Shi'a religious sites remain more likely in the short term, writes Noemi Casati.
A recent surge in violence in Rio's favelas is a sign of declining trust between residents and police, which has allowed once-banished drug traffickers and criminal gangs to take back territory. Despite these problems, the city's policing initiatives have brought visible benefits, which the next governor must work hard to cement, writes Zoe Wakefield.…
The Fatah-Hamas rapprochement could have a positive effect on security, but residual fault lines may make cooperation short-lived, writes Noemi Casati.
The EU elections in May will likely reflect the increasing popularity of Eurosceptic parties on both the extreme right and left wings of the political spectrum, leading to a heightened risk of violent protest and social unrest as mainstream parties are forced to take a harder line on issues such as immigration, writes Rachel Hankey.
While President Santos' re-election in May remains likely, public resistance to a possible FARC amnesty threatens the peace talks on which he's staked his reputation, writes Zoe Wakefield.
Bouteflika's re-election, while unsurprising, represents a missed opportunity for Algeria, where longstanding policies aimed at suppressing civil unrest are threatened by political and economic instability, writes Albert Arbuthnott.