On 30 April, US and Ukrainian representatives signed a bilateral minerals deal, securing an alliance for Ukraine in the ongoing war with Russia. However, its skirting of security guarantees changes little on the ground for Ukraine, and sustains uncertainty over whether the investments it seeks to entice will turn a timely profit, writes Neo Tsotetsi.…
The May 2025 cross-border clashes between India and Pakistan marked the most serious escalation between the long-time adversaries since the 1999 Kargil War. Tamsin Hunt examines the hardening positions on both sides, and the expanding pressure tactics that will drive tensions in the coming years.
While Iran has long used proxies to advance its strategic objectives in the Middle East, it has increasingly leveraged relationships with criminal networks to advance its objectives on European soil, allowing for plausible deniability while avoiding a costly military confrontation at home, write Richard Gardiner and Shannon Lorimer.
Between March and May 2025, the US conducted a sustained campaign of airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, while Iran signalled its intention to reduce its support for the group. Despite these developments – including a recent ceasefire agreement with the US – Richard Gardiner argues that the Houthis will continue to pose a threat to both regional…
Difficulties in navigating varying policy positions among the largest parties in South Africa’s unity government have highlighted the significant challenges facing the coalition. In the absence of a mechanism to handle these disputes, political infighting looks likely to persist, writes Shannon Lorimer.
The arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, and popular leader of the opposition Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP) party, Ekrem İmamoğlu, triggered mass protests and a subsequent stringent response by police. Tamsin Hunt explores the impact of these latest developments on Turkey’s political stability over the coming year.
In early 2025, Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) facilitated their first kidnappings of foreign nationals in nearly seven years. Neo Tsotetsi analyses the incidents and discusses the underlying shifts in the Sahelian security environment enabling it.
The release of Marc Fogel from Russian detention in February came as the new US administration ramped up efforts to secure the return of detained Americans held abroad and recalibrate its approach to Russia. Richard Gardiner examines how these policy shifts under President Donald Trump could shape the future of wrongful detentions of US nationals in…
A recent high-profile kidnapping in Thailand has shone a renewed spotlight on ‘scam compounds’ flourishing in South Asia’s organised crime industry, with repercussions for Thailand’s reputation as a safe destination for foreign – and particularly Chinese – visitors, writes Tamsin Hunt.
In tackling the country’s persistently high levels of violent crime, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has intensified security operations led by the military. This marks a publicised departure from the ‘hugs not bullets’ approach of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), although its success is not guaranteed, writes Shannon Lorimer.…
As geopolitical sands shift amid the new US administration’s realignment of its domestic and foreign policy agenda, the global travel sector faces some uncertainty over the direct and potentially slower-to-emerge implications for travel safety. Saif Islam and Erin Drake consider what these implications may look like over the coming year.
US President Donald Trump’s ‘America first’ policies and threats to withdraw from NATO have highlighted the urgency for European countries to decrease their reliance on US military support. However, significant challenges remain in realising security independence, write Neo Tsotetsi and Shannon Lorimer.