As global trade disputes intensify, the trickle-down effect of destabilised supply chains amid existing domestic economic challenges threatens to drive demonstrations and strikes across the US, Canada, Mexico and Europe. Neil Mugabe and Erin Drake examine how continued volatility in the trade landscape could drive instability in the coming year.
Despite heavy losses on the battlefield in 2023 and 2024, major territorial gains by Myanmar’s military in the past few months have signalled a recent shift in the military’s favour. With elections scheduled for December 2025, the junta’s ongoing offensive to secure strategic towns and transport arteries is increasingly intertwined with efforts to secure…
The late October fall of Al Fashir marked the consolidation of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) dominance in southwest Sudan, splitting security control over the country and setting the RSF up to rule Darfur as a parallel government, Neo Tsotetsi argues.
As increased polarisation and public dissatisfaction around a range of policy issues drive political tensions ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, Richard Gardiner examines factors likely to influence unrest and disruption across the United States (US) in the coming year.
In late September, youth-led protests denouncing high government expenditure on international sporting tournaments amid the underfunding of public services took root across the country. Neo Tsotetsi examines the issues driving these demonstrations and the impact they have had on Morocco thus far.
On 8 and 9 September, youth-led protests resulted in the collapse of the Nepalese government. Although these demonstrations were triggered by a controversial government decision to ban social media platforms, Tamsin Hunt argues that they brought much deeper and endemic issues to the fore – grievances that the next government will struggle to overcome.…
Russia’s grey zone attacks in Europe have surged amid the conflict in Ukraine. This strategy reflects growing tensions between NATO and Russia, but also highlights underlying challenges in responding to Russia’s covert aggression, writes Richard Gardiner.
The fall of Bashar Al Assad has substantially reshaped Syria’s security landscape, with knock-on effects for the country’s illicit economy. Richard Gardiner explores how the new status quo is driving a rise in extortion and kidnapping in some areas, entrenching these activities in others, and the implications for prospective foreign investors.
Civic organisations, locally known as 'ormas,' have long maintained a reputation across Indonesia as extortionists and ‘thugs,’ frequently demanding money from businesses as part of an established protection racket. Neo Tsotetsi discusses two pre-eminent ormas operating in Jakarta and countrywide, GRIB Jaya and Pemuda Pancasila, to examine their tactics…
With kidnapping incidents in Nigeria persisting, Richard Gardiner examines the current dynamics of the crime and highlights emerging trends shaped by the country’s difficult socioeconomic conditions and troubled security landscape.
In 2025, extortion and associated violence have continued to skyrocket in Peru, targeting a wide range of sectors, including those previously thought to be immune. Shannon Lorimer looks at the conditions enabling and fuelling extortion, as the practice and its implications continue to disrupt commercial operations and threaten political stability.
In August and September, tensions between the US and Venezuela ramped up over the latter’s alleged role in transnational organised crime. Tamsin Hunt examines the wider security and geopolitical implications of counternarcotic militarisation, and broader pressure from the US on regional governments to stem the practice.