The Bear digs in: Russia's military deployment in Syria

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Russia has been an invaluable source of political, military and diplomatic support to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s regime. In 2013, for example, when the US was considering air strikes on Syria following a major chemical attack in suburbs around Damascus, Russia’s diplomatic intervention clinched a deal to remove the country’s chemical weapons, preventing US military action. However, in recent weeks, Russia’s support to Assad has escalated significantly with the emergence of an increased Russian military presence in western Syria. Russia has reportedly established an air operations base in Latakia, an area controlled by Assad’s forces, and has at least 25 fighter and attack aircraft, 15 helicopters, nine tanks, three surface-to-air missile systems and 500 personnel on the ground. Syrian officials have also confirmed the receipt of Russian fighter jets and intelligence support, which has reportedly helped them carry out airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) positions. This military build-up has fuelled substantial speculation regarding Russia’s intentions. While Russia and the West have vowed to cooperate in the fight against IS, fundamental differences also threaten to escalate tensions again. 

Russia’s increased presence comes amidst considerable changes on the ground in Syria. Since early 2015, Syrian government forces have been losing territories to Western-backed rebel groups and transnational extremist groups such as IS, despite enduring support for Assad’s regime from Iran-funded militia units. The surge of IS in Syria and neighbouring Iraq prompted the establishment of a US-led, anti-IS coalition of 60 countries (excluding Russia), which has been bombing IS targets for over a year. Against this backdrop, Russia has framed its intervention as similar to the anti-IS alliance, although its broader agenda in supporting Assad differs significantly from that of the US and its allies. 

To date, Russia has adopted a defensive military posture in Syria, and it is highly unlikely that Russian ground forces will engage in large-scale operations to regain territories lost by Assad. Even with Russian support, the Syrian regime’s forces are severely constrained by a lack of manpower and equipment and are incapable of sustaining prolonged offensives. As such, the most likely immediate impact of the increased Russian deployment on the war will be the freeing up of the regime’s remaining military assets to secure a buffer zone in Syria’s south-western Idlib province, as well as to re-double efforts to push back the rebel forces currently encroaching on Damascus. This is likely to create a temporary equilibrium between the Syrian regime and its opponents, with neither side capable of seizing substantial areas of ground. 

These conditions are likely to contribute towards Russia’s underlying goal of preserving Assad’s regime, an outcome to which the US and its allies are opposed. While Russia views Assad as instrumental to fighting IS and any political solution to the conflict, the US blames him for initiating the conflict and has consistently called for his removal from power. Additionally, the US is concerned that Russia’s military involvement in Syria will lead to confrontations with Western-backed rebel groups and disrupt its anti-IS bombing operations as an unintended consequence.

In light of these concerns, the US has expressed tentative approval of Russia’s role in fighting IS, and in late September 2015, engaged in talks with Russia over avoiding accidental confrontations on the ground, as well as areas of co-operation. The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, also recently welcomed Russia’s role in facilitating negotiations, and even said that the US is flexible regarding the timing of Assad’s departure. Russia has therefore been able to use its military presence in Syria as leverage to negotiate an eventual end to the conflict that aligns more closely with its agenda, and open up communication with the West.

Moreover, Russia’s deployment in Syria is also likely aimed at alleviating other areas of tension between Russia and the West. For instance, Russia’s military build-up in Syria has coincided with a decrease in fighting in eastern Ukraine, where Russia is supporting pro-Russian separatists. It is likely that in the face of economic sanctions and international isolation over its actions in Ukraine, Russia is joining the fight against IS in Syria for rapprochement with the West.

However, while the US and Russia may have found common ground in relation to IS, fundamental disagreements remain over the desired political outcomes to the Syrian and Ukrainian conflicts. As such, with Russia’s enduring support for Assad and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, tensions between Russia and the West are far from over.