Small victory: Indonesia's legislative elections

On 9 April over 139 million voters, spanning 8,000 islands and three time zones, participated in Indonesia’s legislative elections. These elections saw 235,637 candidates from 15 political parties competing for 19,699 positions at national, provincial, city and sub-district levels. Of the 186 million eligible voters in the world’s third largest democracy, and largest Muslim nation, 35 percent were swing voters and 29 percent were under the age of 30. But despite the scale of the undertaking, the proliferation of candidates and youthful volatility of the electorate, observers were all but certain of the outcome.

Pre-election polls and surveys indicated the victory of the opposition Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), led by the charismatic governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi. While the final results are not announced until May, a PDI-P victory is supported by the quick counts and exit polls, showing them to be ahead with just under 19 percent of the popular vote, followed by the Golkar and Gerindra parties. All three are hoping to field candidates in the presidential elections on 9 July, in which Jokowi is the favourite, followed by Gerindra’s Prabowo Subianto, a controversial military leader and son-in-law of former dictator General Suharto.

While the predominance of PDI-P, Golkar and Gerindra was predicted, their respective shares of the vote fell far short of expectations. Crucially, no political party reached the 25 percent threshold required to put forward a presidential candidate. Many hoped that a decisive PDI-P victory would end the horse-trading that hampered decision-making under the administration of outgoing President Yudhoyono, whose Democrat Party led a coalition of six political parties. The PDI-P has already secured a deal with NasDem, the newly formed party of media mogul Surya Paloh. However, unless it manages to muster 20 percent of the parliamentary seats in the final results, it will be forced to form a larger coalition than anticipated.

The outcome of the April elections introduces a new uncertainty in the run-up to July. The absence of a ‘Jokowi effect’ – whereby Jokowi’s popularity was expected to boost the PDI-P’s performance at the polls – has led analysts to question the inevitability of a Jokowi victory. The uncertainty has implications for regional security too – particularly in Aceh province, the only Indonesian province to experience severe political violence in the run-up to the April elections. Politics in Aceh is dominated by the Aceh Party (PA), formed by former rebels from the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), which led an insurgency that lasted from 1976 to 2005. 

Between January and March this year, the province witnessed abductions, shootings and grenade attacks mostly by PA supporters targeting representatives of NasDem and the Aceh National Party (PNA), a PA splinter group headed by Irwandi Yusuf, the former governor of Aceh.

The PDI-P does not have a strong traditional base in Aceh, although an alliance with NasDem may boost Jokowi’s chances in the region. NasDem leader Surya Paloh is a native of Aceh, and the party has subsequently gained traction. NasDem is also pushing Jokowi to declare Jusuf Kalla, a popular former Vice President and Golkar party chairman, as his running mate. Kalla was a mediator in the conflict in Aceh, and his involvement in the peace process may consolidate his popularity. Still, Jokowi faces a strong challenge from Prabowo, whose Gerindra party has been making inroads in Aceh through an unlikely alliance with the PA. As a local party, the PA cannot participate in national elections but can use their influence to endorse national parties and presidential candidates. This year, they have openly endorsed Prabowo, and many former GAM rebels stood as legislative candidates for Gerindra.

The support of high-level PA leaders will likely boost Gerindra’s chances of success in Aceh, but it also foreshadows continuing violence and instability. The alliance is highly controversial, attracting criticism from PA supporters as well as the PNA. Prabowo conducted military campaigns against the GAM insurgency and his links to Suharto make him a provocative symbol of oppression. In 1990, he led a military unit into Aceh, initiating a decade of sustained violence and human rights abuses inflicted upon residents and suspected rebel supporters. Even if the official results of the April election in Aceh show support for Gerindra, asking Acehnese voters to elect Prabowo as president will likely fuel further confrontations between PA, PNA and NasDem supporters in the months to come.