Amid heightened geopolitical tension and rivalry, the ways in which countries compete to secure influence and strategic goals have shifted in recent years. Richard Gardiner explores how conflict dynamics are likely to unfold in 2026, and the implications these may have for commercial operators in key hotspots.
The late October fall of Al Fashir marked the consolidation of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) dominance in southwest Sudan, splitting security control over the country and setting the RSF up to rule Darfur as a parallel government, Neo Tsotetsi argues.
With kidnapping incidents in Nigeria persisting, Richard Gardiner examines the current dynamics of the crime and highlights emerging trends shaped by the country’s difficult socioeconomic conditions and troubled security landscape.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s renewed push for an Ethiopian sea port has stoked tensions in the Horn of Africa, threatening the re-emergence of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, as Neo Tsotetsi discusses, the current dynamics lend themselves more to a continuation of the familiar proxy routine than open conflict.
As several African countries head to the polls in the second half of 2025, democratic freedoms in many states continues to shrink, drawing public ire and concerns over longer-term political stability. Richard Gardiner and Neo Tsotetsi examine these dynamics in Côte d’Ivoire, Malawi, and Tanzania as key elections approach.
Extortion syndicates have increasingly been targeting mining companies in South Africa, deploying a mix of old and newer tactics. Neo Tsotetsi examines these dynamics.
In May, the Safeguarding Health in Conflict Coalition (SHCC) released its annual report, highlighting a sharp rise in violence against healthcare organisations and workers in conflict zones. Richard Gardiner explores the underlying drivers of this trend and argues that the SHCC’s findings reflect deeper concerns about the state of the aid sector as…
Former president Joseph Kabila’s return to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in April in the M23-controlled city of Goma, North Kivu, coincides with the government’s crackdown on pro-Kabila dissent, further complicating efforts to address the country’s persistent security challenges, writes Neo Tsotetsi.
Difficulties in navigating varying policy positions among the largest parties in South Africa’s unity government have highlighted the significant challenges facing the coalition. In the absence of a mechanism to handle these disputes, political infighting looks likely to persist, writes Shannon Lorimer.
In early 2025, Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) facilitated their first kidnappings of foreign nationals in nearly seven years. Neo Tsotetsi analyses the incidents and discusses the underlying shifts in the Sahelian security environment enabling it.
With Islamist militant groups and extremists carrying out attacks across multiple regions last year, Richard Gardiner examines some of the main actors involved and explores what may lie ahead in 2025.
Over the course of 2024, activists have mobilised around the world over a range of pertinent issues. With the underlying drivers behind these protests largely unaddressed, demonstrations will continue and potentially evolve this year, writes Shannon Lorimer.