Rocking the boat: The Houthis’ defiance and disruption

Since the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023, the Middle East’s geopolitical and security landscape has been anything but stable – especially in Yemen. The Houthis, a Yemeni rebel group with deep ties to Iran, launched a wave of maritime attacks on commercial vessels and Western military assets in the Red Sea and Bab Al Mandab Strait, citing solidarity with the Palestinian cause. But with the return of US President Donald Trump, American airstrikes on Houthi targets ramped up significantly, damaging oil refineries and missile sites in Houthi-held areas and reportedly killing dozens, including senior Houthi commanders. At the same time, growing speculation about a possible Iranian pullback – amid rising tensions between Tehran and Washington – has raised questions about the Houthis’ long-term trajectory. Still, despite mounting external pressure, the group’s entrenched domestic position and expanding network of allies suggest the Houthis are far from a spent force. The recently signed US-Houthi ceasefire is a positive step toward de-escalation, but the group remains a potent threat to regional and maritime security – and one that is unlikely to fade any time soon.

Iran’s balancing act

The recent US airstrikes on the Houthis served more than just a tactical purpose. Beyond degrading the group’s ability to threaten commercial shipping and US military assets, they were also part of Washington’s broader “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. Trump has made clear that his administration views the Houthis as an extension of Iranian influence, previously stating that Iran will be held responsible for “every shot fired by the Houthis.” This narrative is a key backdrop to recent Iranian claims that they are scaling back support for the Houthis and withdrawing personnel from Yemen, a move framed by Tehran as part of a wider effort to reduce its reliance on regional proxies.

While US–Iran animosity remains high, there are renewed signs of possible nuclear negotiations, with delegations from both countries having held high-level talks mediated by Oman in Rome and Muscat in April. This shift comes as Iran and its regional partners have faced mounting setbacks over the past year. Tehran appears to be signalling diplomatic flexibility, yet there is little concrete evidence of a real break with the Houthis. More likely, Iran is leveraging the optics of disengagement to preserve its most effective regional partner while attempting to ease pressure from Washington.

Domestic resilience

Even if Iran were to sever ties with the Houthis, the group is unlikely to collapse. Recent US strikes have dealt a blow, destroying weapons caches and eliminating several senior leaders, but the Houthis have demonstrated a longstanding ability to withstand sustained aerial bombardment. This was especially evident during the Saudi-led and Western-backed coalition campaign of airstrikes between 2015 and 2022. The group’s emphasis on operational security has helped prevent the decapitation of its leadership, while Yemen’s rugged terrain continues to provide cover for dispersing and concealing weapons stockpiles, making it difficult for outside forces to dismantle their arsenal from the air.

Unlike other Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah, which rely heavily on Tehran for strategic direction, the Houthis operate with notable autonomy. While Iranian military support has been crucial – especially for their missile and drone capabilities – the Houthis originated as a local movement and have developed their own domestic and regional agendas. This independence has allowed them to pursue pragmatic alliances beyond Iran’s orbit, including closer ties with regional armed groups, as well as with Russia and, to a lesser extent, China.

The dangers of diversification

This operational independence has also shaped the Houthis’ approach to weapons procurement and regional partnerships. A central Houthi objective has been to diversify weapons supplies and reduce reliance on Iranian funding. To achieve this, the group has adopted a pragmatic approach, collaborating with former enemies such as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen and strengthening ties with Al Shabaab in Somalia. These alliances have enabled the exchange of weaponry and facilitated enhanced smuggling routes, as evidenced by UN reports of identical weapons batches in Yemen and Somalia. US officials have also raised concerns about growing coordination between the Houthis, AQAP, and Al Shabaab in maritime operations across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, pointing to a potential evolution of the threat to shipping in the region.

Since the Houthis began targeting vessels in the Red Sea and Bab Al Mandab Strait in 2023, commercial traffic has sharply declined, with many shipping companies rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope – adding significant time and cost to global trade.

The ceasefire between the US and the Houthis has offered a glimmer of hope for the maritime industry that the situation may soon stabilise. However, while both sides have agreed to stop targeting each other’s assets, the Houthis have been quick to note that the agreement does not address their attacks on Israel. This leaves open the question of whether Israeli-linked vessels will continue to face threats. Uncertainty also remains over the durability of the deal. Given that the Houthis retain the capability to strike maritime targets, such threats could quickly resume if the agreement collapses. As a result, shipping companies and maritime insurers are likely to remain cautious about routing vessels through the Red Sea in the near term.

More choppy waters

Looking ahead, despite the heavy blows inflicted by US, as well as recent Israeli airstrikes on both the Houthis and the territory they control, the group appears to have largely withstood the onslaught. While the truce with the US is a promising development, the absence of any resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict means the Houthis will continue to cast themselves as champions of resistance, using this narrative to reinforce their legitimacy both domestically and internationally. Their proven resilience, expanding network of alliances, and persistent operational capabilities mean the Houthis are poised to remain a disruptive force – on land, at sea, and across the region – throughout 2025.