In early May, India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, came close to full-scale conflict. As in years past, this latest bout of tension was triggered by a deadly separatist attack in the disputed, India-controlled territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 people, including 24 Indian tourists, on 22 April. On 7 May, India launched its strongest retaliation yet, initiating an airstrike campaign against separatist insurgent groups Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Hizbul Mujahideen across Pakistan – three groups that India claims are sponsored by Pakistan itself. The situation quickly deteriorated, and over a four-day period, the two countries targeted ever more strategic and sensitive military sites across their shared border. New and sophisticated weaponry – including fighter jets and hundreds of armed drones – allowed both sides to probe one another’s air defences and conduct provocative attacks without placing their own personnel at risk. Although India and Pakistan reached a ceasefire on 10 May, which continues to hold, the differences between the two remain unaddressed, and this latest clash will only serve to cement positions on both sides.

Deaths and damages on both sides

Both India and Pakistan are reluctant to reveal the true extent of the damages inflicted by a longstanding adversary. India reportedly lost between two and six military aircraft, while in Pakistan, satellite imagery has revealed damage to runways, aircraft hangars and other buildings at multiple air bases. Pakistan’s military reported that 51 people were killed over those four days, including 11 soldiers and 40 civilians, while Indian authorities stated that five military personnel and 16 civilians had died on their side of the border.

Pulled back from the brink

Ultimately, this latest conflict was over in four days, with physical damage remaining targeted and limited on both sides, and with international diplomatic pressure (most notably from the US) playing a critical role in bringing the two sides to the negotiating table. Many of the world’s major powers have clear reasons for discouraging conflict between India and Pakistan, not least an awareness of the nuclear capabilities of both parties. Regional stability in South Asia is also firmly in the interests of the US. India is a strategic ally and seen as an important regional counterweight to China, and while its relations with Pakistan are often rocky, the country presents opportunities for cooperation against regional militancy. Meanwhile, for China, this latest clash served as a valuable battle-test of its military technology, pitting Pakistan’s Chinese-built jets against Indian warplanes and missiles of European and Russian origin. On balance, however, with major Chinese investments in Pakistan as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a larger conflict would be extremely destructive and costly, and therefore not wholly in China’s interests either. Domestic considerations in India and Pakistan will also – at least to some extent – limit the appetite for open conflict. Pakistan’s faltering economy, notably, can ill-afford a largescale war with its much larger and stronger neighbour, and for India, such a clash would derail its ambitions towards economic growth and geopolitical influence.

Entrenched positions

These dynamics will help to bring calm to the region for at least the short term. However, the dispute over Kashmir is just one factor in the complex and chronic differences between India and Pakistan, and positions have irrevocably hardened on both sides. For Pakistan, this latest clash with India has only served to justify the military’s power and political influence in the country, while India has promised to take a harder line against terrorist threats, including those stemming from Pakistani territory. An ever-greater Indian response to future high-casualty attacks in Jammu and Kashmir is almost inevitable. Both countries’ populations, too, broadly support their governments’ opposing stances on Kashmir, with the deepening rivalry underpinned by rising religious nationalism on both sides. With no prospect of a long-term solution on the horizon, the two countries look destined to repeat – and potentially escalate – military confrontations in the future.