On 1 June, Mexicans went to the polls for the first of two rounds of voting to elect the country’s judiciary, with the second phase of the elections set for 2027. The elections will see every judge in Mexico appointed by popular vote, filling 850 federal posts, nine Supreme Court seats, 22 powerful tribunal positions and thousands of roles in lower courts, and removing the former systems of assessments and nominations. The reforms have been met with fierce resistance, with the elections seeing only a 13 percent turnout and around 23 percent of ballots blank or annulled. Opponents of the reform have warned of an erosion of checks and balances, which may harm stability and deter foreign or private investment into the country.

A blow to democracy

The reforms have been widely criticised as an attempt to consolidate more political power by the Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (National Regeneration Movement, Morena), Mexico’s ruling party. Congress first passed the constitutional changes required for the new process in September 2024, initiated by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and seen through by his successor and mentee, President Claudia Sheinbaum, arguing the reforms would make the judiciary more democratic and combat corruption. While corruption and nepotism are issues in need of addressing – with Mexico’s impunity rate for crimes typically ranging from 94 to 98 percent – opponents of the judicial overhaul argue it will undermine the rule of law, strengthen Morena’s grip on power and weaken the country’s democratic institutions.

Even before the elections, Morena yielded substantial political power, with the party and its allies boasting a supermajority in Congress and three-quarters of state governorships. But, although AMLO implemented a range of reforms while president, many of his key policies and proposals, including transferring control of the National Guard to the army, were initially repealed or overturned by the Supreme Court. President Sheinbaum now appears less likely to be hindered by these limitations, particularly after electoral candidates with Morena's stamp of approval (with Morena controlling two of the three committees for vetting judicial candidates) claimed victories in some of the country’s top courts countrywide.

A weakened judiciary

The overhaul also has the potential to harm the quality of Mexico’s judiciary, as judges who answer to voters may be more likely to uphold more popular laws. Furthermore, critics have argued that the election will politicise the judiciary, raising questions on the impartiality of judges and their decisions, thereby also potentially reducing their ability to restrain politicians. Additionally, the popular election of the judiciary allows judges with minimal experience or training to occupy important positions, while the new system also offers criminal organisations new channels to influence court judgements. Cartels already frequently threaten and assassinate judges who are deemed to interfere in their illicit activities, and judicial elections may serve to enhance their access and influence over courts. Criminal organisations will have the potential to control which candidates can run and influence the vote, depositing candidates loyal to them in the same practise as in political elections.

Decreasing investor confidence

The reforms have been met with significant resistance from Mexico’s business community over concerns they may foster corruption and decrease accountability. Additionally, the US and Canada, two of Mexico’s biggest trading partners, have suggested the reforms may breach trade agreements. There would be significant implications for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a free trade agreement which aims to foster a balanced and reciprocal trade environment, where disputes related to cross-border investments are reviewed in domestic courts. The agreement is scheduled for review in July 2026, where Mexico’s judicial reforms will likely be a central issue.

Outlook

With these reforms, Morena will dominate the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, with all nine seats on Mexico’s Supreme Court now occupied by judges with links to the ruling party. Sheinbaum’s support for the reforms marked a departure from her usual more business-friendly approach and has cast doubt on the strength of democratic institutions in Mexico, increasing investor concerns over the country’s already slow-moving economy. Yet, Sheinbaum has made no indications of intent to change the format of the elections ahead of the second round in 2027, at which point Mexicans will vote for new governors, mayors and members of Congress, raising questions about the future of the division of power and checks and balances in the country.