Attacks against and seizures of merchant vessels in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman amid increased tensions between Iran and the US could result in a major military escalation, with serious implications for regional security and the global economy, writes Saif Islam..
The ongoing fighting in Tripoli has not only killed and injured thousands of people in and around the Libyan capital but has also exacerbated the threat of wrongful detention faced by foreign nationals, writes Saif Islam.
Islamic State has responded to its territorial losses in Iraq with a return to its insurgent roots, which, along with security vulnerabilities present in the country, could intensify the threat of kidnapping, writes Saif Islam.
The dismissal of Rex Tillerson as the US Secretary of State, and the nomination of the hawkish Michael Pompeo as his replacement, is not expected to re-escalate the Qatar-GCC diplomatic crisis, but it could prolong it, writes Saif Islam.
It is premature to assume that the bromance between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will result in sustained, positive relations between the US and Russia, writes Saif Islam.
The recent abduction of Afgan Mukhtarli not only puts Georgia's democratic credentials under scrutiny, but also highlights the variety of threats faced by independent journalists in many parts of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including wrongful detention, writes Saif Islam.
Although there are some indications of potential changes to foreign and economic policy, there is little doubt that the new Uzbek leader will continue the tradition of his predecessor and preserve the authoritarian political system, writes Saif Islam.
Lack of political will on both sides of the negotiating table continues to undermine efforts to resolve the war in eastern Ukraine. Unless Ukraine, Russia and pro-Russian separatists can reach a compromise, rebel-held territories look set to become another “frozen conflict” zone in the former Soviet Union, writes Saif Islam. This article was originally published in the Daily Maverick: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-10-26-s-rm-new-talks-on-ukraine-bring-little-hope-for-peace/#.WFvnaFN96Uk…
Saif Islam discusses the prevalence of corruption and extortion in Russiaand Ukraine amid the regional economic contraction, which had a negativeimpact on investor confidence in 2015.
The economic slowdown hasresulted in protests in Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which are likelyto increase the risk of wrongful detention in 2016 as authorities try to clampdown on dissent, writes Saif Islam.
The resurgence of Taliban militancy increases the risk of skirmishes along Central Asia's southern border. Although the prospect of major instability has been exaggerated, there are long-term security implications for Central Asia, writes Saif Islam.