In mid-October, the cash-strapped Lebanese government announced new daily taxes for phone calls made via several popular messaging applications, such WhatsApp and Viber. Within a few hours, the controversial measure resulted in an outpouring of public anger, manifesting in large countrywide anti-government demonstrations across sectarian, religious and political lines. The authorities swiftly backtracked and scrapped the taxes, but the demonstrations continued regardless. This was the largest anti-government protest campaign since the 2015 ‘You Stink’ movement, which related to dissatisfaction with the government’s waste management services and is undoubtedly the biggest political crisis that Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s unity government has faced since it came to power earlier this year. On 29 October, Prime Minister Hariri submitted his resignation to the president  following days of anti-government protests. The rest of Hariri’s government is constitutionally obligated to follow the Prime Minister’s lead and tender their resignations, and transition into a caretaker role until a new government is formed. While the resignation of Prime Minister Hariri meets a key demand of anti-government protesters, it will also plunge the country into even greater uncertainty, with protesters emboldened and no clear path to resolving its growing economic and political crisis.

PILING ON THE AGONY

The demonstrations against new taxes was the culmination of longstanding public frustration over the government’s failure to improve the country’s dire socio-economic circumstances. In recent years, there have been numerous protests over inflation, unemployment, stagnant salaries, pollution, crumbling infrastructure, inadequate supply of water and electricity, poor waste management and administrative corruption. Lebanon remains one of the most indebted countries in the world, with public debt exceeding 150 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), and debt servicing costing an estimated 50 percent of government revenues.

Even before the recent protests, a considerable shortage of US dollars in the country threatened to disrupt supplies of imported gasoline, medicine and food. The government was under pressure from international donors to reduce spending and increase taxes to unlock more than USD 11 billion of international aid pledges made at a conference in Paris last year. The new taxes were going to be part of the government’s economic strategy, followed by an increase in value-added tax and levies on gasoline. The protests,  however, indicated widespread rejection of these measures, with many citizens blaming the government – alleging corruption and cronyism of the ruling elites – for the country’s economic plight.

BUSINESS (NOT) AS USUAL

The demonstrations paralysed much of the country, including the capital, Beirut. The protesters aimed to bring the country to a standstill through civil disobedience and road blockades. Many local businesses, banks and hospitals have been closed for several days. Although most demonstrations were peaceful, there have been sporadic incidents of violence, particularly in Beirut. As at 23 October, at least four people have been killed. The unrest also prompted Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to evacuate their citizens, with approximately 600 Saudi and Kuwaiti nationals leaving the country amidst the instability.

A GOVERNMENT OUT OF TUNE

Hariri’s resignation was a last resort to placate demonstrators’ demands. Prior to this, Hariri and several key political figures had stressed that they empathise with the protesters’ dissatisfaction – a common pacification tactic in Lebanese politics – and that these measures were designed to partially alleviate their concerns. In a bid to satisfy protester demands, four ministers from the Lebanese Forces party – one of Hariri’s allies – resigned from the cabinet on 19 October. Two days later on 21 October, the government announced an emergency reform package, which included a 2020 state budget that does not impose any new taxes on individuals, a 50 percent reduction in the salaries of current and former politicians and increased social benefits for poorer citizens. However, tens of thousands of people continued to demonstrate, rejecting Hariri’s proposed reforms, with many demanding the full government’s resignation and new elections.

The political elite failed to address the fact that the protesters’ demands have broadened and are not, like in the past, a limited reaction to controversial policies. This time, protesters want an end to the very political system that the factions rely on for their power and patronage. The protests represent a national, cross-sectarian movement that is pressing for the dismantling of the National Pact of 1943 that established Lebanon’s current sectarian political system.

OUTLOOK

 Al-Hariri’s resignation was a key demand of many protesters. Yet, because the protest movement is cross-sectarian and grassroots, there is no simple solution to appeasing its myriad demands. While some may see this as a victory sufficient to end protests, others may perceive the Hariri resignation as a cosmetic change. Rather than appeasing them, his departure could embolden protesters to demand wide-sweeping changes, like the formal end of the 1943 National Pact. This coupled with the already rampant social discontent, public mistrust of the government, and skepticism regarding the political elite, suggest that unrest is likely to continue in the coming weeks. The frequency and intensity of these protests will be difficult to predict. 

But, if the protests do not subside, Lebanon will feasibly enter a period of significant uncertainty, and will prolong the period of political and economic crisis. Widespread resignation of politicians would jeopardise the delicate system of power-sharing among the country’s various sects. The formation of a new government would likely take many months — especially as there is no suitable candidate to replace Hariri. Even if this was to occur swiftly, the new government would struggle to reverse the growing economic decline and promote social stability amid deep divisions. This political upheaval would leave the country more fragmented and fragile than ever before.