Economic PressuresRaise the Stakes in the CIS

Since the early 2000s, many of the regimes in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have enjoyed consistent economic growth on the back of commodity exports, which allowed them to establish patronage based political systems and suppress opposition groups. However, since early 2014, persistently low oil and commodity prices, as well as Western sanctions on Russia, have contributed to a major economic slowdown in the region. Driven by a fall in real wages and high inflation, popular discontent is reportedly increasing, especially in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia, countries with an already limited tolerance for dissent. While the likelihood of significant political violence in these countries in 2016 is low, in the event of popular unrest amidst worsening economic woes, the ruling governments are likely to step up their suppression tactics against members of the opposition, civil society and media. 

Events in 2015 and early 2016 already hint at an increase in civil unrest and wrongful detention throughout the region. In mid-January 2016, at least 55 people were arrested in Azerbaijan following several largely peaceful protests against inflation and unemployment in the districts of Fizuli, Aqsu, Aqcabardi, Siyazan, and Lankaran. Among the arrested were protesters, opposition leaders and activists, some of whom claimed to have been wrongfully detained. Moreover, in Russia, there have been minor protests and strikes by teachers, doctors and workers throughout the country over the past year. In Moscow, long distance truck drivers, part of President Vladimir Putin’s working-class base, have been peacefully protesting a new road tax for almost two months. If these protests cause significant disruptions or turn violent in the near future, harsh crackdowns including wrongful detention by security forces are highly likely. Across the border, Kazakh authorities also seem to have turned a blind eye to minor public protests over currency devaluation in Almaty in recent months, but any escalation will likely be met with strong punitive measures.

Low commodity prices and declining government revenues have become a new reality in the CIS region. As these governments find themselves in uncharted territories, they will be wary of any signs of major unrest. This will also make it difficult for opposition groups, civil society and journalists to scrutinise the governments’ handling of the crises, especially considering the traditionally high level of intolerance towards dissent. Since wrongful detention remains a useful tool of political repression in the region, particularly in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, uncertain socio-economic dynamics are likely to increase its occurrence as these governments seek to strengthen their grip on power in 2016.