While Iran has long used proxies to advance its strategic objectives in the Middle East, it has increasingly leveraged relationships with criminal networks to advance its objectives on European soil, allowing for plausible deniability while avoiding a costly military confrontation at home, write Richard Gardiner and Shannon Lorimer.
Difficulties in navigating varying policy positions among the largest parties in South Africa’s unity government have highlighted the significant challenges facing the coalition. In the absence of a mechanism to handle these disputes, political infighting looks likely to persist, writes Shannon Lorimer.
In tackling the country’s persistently high levels of violent crime, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has intensified security operations led by the military. This marks a publicised departure from the ‘hugs not bullets’ approach of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), although its success is not guaranteed, writes Shannon Lorimer.…
The collapse of a longstanding truce in January between factions of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia dissident group and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional prompted a surge in violence in Catatumbo Region. The fighting has exposed certain shortcomings in President Gustavo Petro’s approach to conflict resolution and will likely prompt…
Over the course of 2024, activists have mobilised around the world over a range of pertinent issues. With the underlying drivers behind these protests largely unaddressed, demonstrations will continue and potentially evolve this year, writes Shannon Lorimer.
Latin America’s travel security landscape remains dominated by kidnappings, extortion and associated violence driven by organised crime and wider insecurity.
A proliferation in narcotics trafficking over the past few years, alongside the diversification of trafficking routes, has prompted an increase in drug-related violence. While some countries try to replicate El Salvador’s iron fist measures to reduce violent crime, others are turning to alternative, softer methods. Yet, it is not clear that either of…
In June 2024, an attempted coup in Bolivia highlighted the country’s growing political and economic crises. With just a year remaining before the country’s general election in August 2025, President Luis Arce faces factionalism within the ruling party, impeding his ability to address shortages of foreign currency and fuel, and continuing to provoke…
Ahead of her inauguration in October 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum has echoed outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s security policies. But widespread organised crime, entrenched corruption, and an ineffective reliance on the military to combat cartels pose challenges to realising sustainable security improvements, writes Shannon Lorimer.
Despite high hopes for Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace plan, it has so far failed to reduce fighting between armed groups or limit their territorial expansion. With around a year left in office, Petro seems unlikely to secure a lasting military or financial victory over the country’s insurgent groups, writes Shannon Lorimer.
On 18 April, a police crackdown on student protests at Columbia University in New York kickstarted a wave of demonstrations on campuses across the world calling on universities to sever their ties with Israel amid the Israel-Palestine conflict. The demonstrations have drawn comparisons to protest campaigns in the previous century, which may offer some…
Organised criminal groups seeking political influence have long driven an increase in political violence during Mexico’s elections. With violent incidents already surpassing those recorded in the 2018 general election and with a month still remaining before the polls, 2024 is likely to be the most violent election year yet, writes Shannon Lorimer.