Crisis in the Counties: Will Kenya see a resurgence in Al Shabaab Abductions along the Border?

Since the beginning of May, Al Shabaab militants have killed at least 34 people in a spate of attacks in the Kenyan counties of Garissa, Lamu, Mandera and Wajir. These attacks have coincided with an increase in the kidnapping and extortion of locals on both the Somali and Kenyan side of the border. On 1 March, for example, armed militants abducted three Kenyan teachers from the Dadaab refugee complex in Garissa county. This renewed encroachment on Kenyan territory, coupled with a collective memory of Al Shabaab’s high-profile kidnappings in the region between 2008 and 2013, has raised concerns over the possibility of a renewed kidnapping threat in northern Kenya.

Between 2008 and 2013, Al Shabaab kidnapped a number of foreign nationals in both Kenya and Somalia. The group’s victims included at least four Western nationals abducted from Kenya’s northeastern counties. Since then, however, these incidents have significantly declined. Travel advisories warning against travel to the region have deprived Al Shabaab of potential targets, while governments’ reluctance to fund militant groups through ransom payments has reduced the profitability of these high-profile kidnap and ransom initiatives. 

Yet, in recent months, while the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) has driven Al Shabaab into smaller territorial pockets in Somalia, the group has maintained a significant foothold in rural parts of central and southern Somalia, including along the Kenyan border. In this regard, the group is now well placed to cross the porous border and exploit the protracted insecurity in Kenya’s northeastern counties. This had led many commentators to point to a renewed kidnapping threat in the border region from an allegedly cash-strapped Al Shabaab. However, the reported financial pressure on Al Shabaab driving an anticipated return to kidnapping for ransom is likely to have been overstated. Attempts to disrupt Al Shabaab’s financial structures have primarily targeted intermediaries, leaving its lucrative smuggling networks largely intact. 

Indeed, the majority of Al Shabaab’s attacks in Kenya have been roadside bombings, primarily directed at Kenyan security forces. A smaller number of attacks have targeted local civilians. The likely aim of these attacks is to pressure the Kenyan government to withdraw the Kenyan military from Somalia. The attacks are a timely source of pressure on the public and the government ahead of the general elections on 8 August 2017. 

As such, in the absence of a source of high-profile targets in the region, conclusions regarding a resurgence in the kidnap and ransom threat in northern Kenya are perhaps premature. The current international ambivalence towards ransom payments and the lack of immediate financial pressure on Al Shabaab are further mitigating factors against renewed abductions.