Competing agendas: Climate, community and labour issues to fuel activism in 2024 | Political Violence Special Edition 2024

Efforts to adopt more responsible practices regarding the impact of industry and business on the environment have accelerated in recent years. But, as governments and international bodies increasingly regulate and legislate this space amid activist demands, growing opposition to the realities of the energy transition are increasingly apparent. In the coming year, industries and governments alike will need to navigate growing competition between reaching environmental targets, and satisfy worker, shareholder and citizen demands more broadly. Missteps or perceived inaction could drive public backlash, leaving the public and private sectors more vulnerable to civil unrest in 2024.

Environmental and community activism escalates

Environmental activism has increased by around seven percent since 2022, with some 2,922 incidents reported globally in 2023. Climate-related protests remained most prevalent, with activist groups in this space becoming increasingly coordinated. Although most protests comprised peaceful marches in cities, groups like JustStopOil and Letzte Generation have escalated efforts to disrupt business and transport systems, targeting companies, sporting events, and infrastructure. In May 2023 for example, London activists stormed an energy giant’s annual shareholder meeting, clashing with security personnel, while Greenpeace protesters harangued the South African Energy Minister’s address at the Africa Energy Indaba in Cape Town. In September 2023, activists further blockaded the Federal Reserve Bank in New York to reject fossil fuel funding, and in November 2023, 300 Rising Tide activists obstructed shipping channels at Australia’s largest coal port. In a similar vein, Letzte Generation protesters have regularly blockaded airports in Berlin, Düsseldorf and Hamburg as part of their protest campaign.

Meanwhile, community activism has escalated in the mining and energy industries, with incidents nearly doubling between 2022 and 2023. The sectors face ongoing resistance among local and indigenous communities who reject the environmental and consequent social impact of extractive operations, including health concerns, forced resettlement, and perceived lapses in social investment commitments by foreign operators. Activists in Peru forced regular suspensions of operations at the Las Bambas copper mine, prompting the withdrawal of an Australian company in April 2023, while energy projects in Namibia and Zimbabwe have been subject to protests over working conditions and the alleged exploitation of migrant workers. With many of these issues unresolved, such protests are set to continue into 2024.

Difficult trade-offs

Yet, as climate and environmental activists push ahead with their demands, fast-tracking environmental and cleaner energy goals has faced resistance elsewhere. Some actors continue to perceive the transition as a threat to job security, or as likely to negatively impact economic growth and business activities for the communities they are set to serve. Between September and October 2023 for example, coal workers in Bulgaria blocked roads as part of protests to demand the government scale back carbon emission targets by 2026; these forced Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov to agree to keep coal plants operational until 2038. Meanwhile, in the US, the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) has driven fears of layoffs among car manufacturers.

This has contributed to months of disruptive union strikes against three prominent automotive firms in the country. Despite the US’s plans to locally manufacture EVs as an employment alternative, slowing sales have prompted delays in investments and spending on factories, prompting industry layoffs that could drive union expectations for federal support in the coming months if the market fails to recover.

The tension between achieving environmental goals and meeting labour demands is becoming increasingly apparent. In the Netherlands, ongoing unrest by farmers resisting regulations to cut nitrogen emissions has gained support among far-right parties. With the pro-agriculture BoerBurgerBeweging winning a significant 15 Senate seats in the March provincial elections, and the right leaning Partij voor de Vrijheid winning national elections in November, concerns have risen over President-elect Geert Wilders's ambition to withdraw from international climate commitments. Similarly, in the US, Republican lawmakers across 37 states have introduced legislation that would see a reduced focus on achieving similar environment-linked goals.

These dynamics may well embolden workers in industries deemed vulnerable to change amid the energy transition to stage further strikes and demonstrations against governments and companies perceived to be upholding environmental priorities at the expense of their livelihoods. In this regard, 2024 will prove a critical year for these competing agendas and one in which resolution will not come without further gatherings on the streets.