Russia & CIS: Emergence of Active Assailant Attacks in Ukraine and Russia

Historically, active assailant attacks have been uncommon in Russia and the CIS. Between 2005 and 2017, there were just three recorded incidents in Russia, and one in Ukraine. However, in 2018, we identified at least seven active assailant cases in Russia CIS. In the most significant incident, on 17 October 2018, one student shot and killed 21 people, and injured at least 50 others, at a polytechnic college in the city of Kerch, on the Crimean Peninsula. The assailant detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) in the college’s cafeteria, before shooting students and staff with a shotgun, and then shooting himself. The motives for the attack remains unclear. In a second incident, on 15 January 2018, two masked men wounded at least 15 people in a knife attack at a school in Perm, Urals Province. Although shotting incidents between members of the military occur frequently in Russia and CIS, attacks against civilians have historically been rare.

North America: US-Style Active Assailant Attacks in Canada

Active assailant attacks are uncommon in Canada, with one incident occurring every two years on average since 1967. However, there were at least five active assailant incidents in Canada in 2018. On 22 July 2018, an active assailant opened fire with a handgun on civilians in the Greektown neighbourhood of Toronto, killing two and wounding 13. Police responding to the incident shot and killed the perpetrator, whose motive for the attack remains unclear. In a second major incident, on 23 April 2018, one perpetrator drove a rented van onto a sidewalk off Yonge Street, Toronto, killing 10 pedestrians and injuring a further 15. According to authorities, the perpetrator appears to have deliberately steered his vehicle onto the sidewalk, as well as into oncoming traffic, for approximately three kilometres. Both incidents highlight how active assailant attacks can occur in regions not known for prevalent gun violence.

China: A Shift in Active Assailant Tactics

Four separate vehicular attacks occurred across China between September and November 2018. On 12 September 2018, at least 11 people were killed, and a further 44 injured, in a vehicular attack in Hengyang City, Hunan Province. The suspect reportedly drove a vehicle into a crowd before exiting the car and attacking bystanders with a knife and shovel. On 6 October 2018, two people were killed, and 16 injured, in a vehicular attack near Ningbo, Zhejiang Province. Additionally, in two separate vehicular attacks near Huludao, Liaoning Province, and Leshan, Sichuan Province, on 22 and 27 November 2018 respectively a total of 12 were killed and 22 injured. The increased use of vehicles marks a shift in active assailant tactics employed in China, as most past cases manifested as knife attacks. Whereas past attacks predominantly targeted schools, these more recent incidents have targeted open and crowded public spaces.