Slowly but surely, Ukraine is weakening Russia’s hold on Crimea, bolstered by the recent deployment of advanced long-range Western weapons systems. Richard Gardiner argues that while this will not secure a decisive victory for Ukraine in the war, it will still have significant implications for Russia, which has always viewed Crimea as a critical linchpin…
The start of 2024 has not been easy for Ukraine, underscored by continued weapons shortages and the loss of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. Richard Gardiner considers Ukraine’s defence prospects in 2024 and its ability to expose Russia’s looming challenges in 2025 and beyond.
Saif Islam and Richard Gardiner explore some of the major developments that may influence the trajectory of the conflict in the new year.
With Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine now under way, pressure will build on Kyiv to demonstrate its forces can make strategic gains and prove to its Western allies that it can win the war. Richard Gardiner discusses the nature of the task at hand, and measures what success and failure would look like for Ukraine.…
As Russia steps up offensive operations, Ukraine will have to endure a nervous wait for vital western military aid, including tanks, that will boost their own ability to stage a counteroffensive in the spring. Richard Gardiner discusses how both sides are under pressure to succeed and considers the trajectory of the conflict over the coming months.
Since the 24 February Russian invasion of Ukraine, over 10 million people have been displaced by the conflict. Military, humanitarian, and financial assistance have flooded the country, but with crises mounting elsewhere, Natasha Glazer and Tamsin Hunt investigate the potential realities for increased global competition for aid.
Recent high-profile deaths of journalists have brought to light the dangers members of the profession face when doing their jobs. Markus Korhonen looks more closely at the global security environment for media workers.
Amid Russia’s ongoing military offensive in Ukraine, security incidents in Transnistria – the Russia-backed breakaway region located between Moldova and Ukraine – have made headlines. Such developments are unlikely to impact the Ukrainian conflict, but remain a source of concern for Moldova, writes Richard Gardiner.
Major security crises in Afghanistan and Ukraine over the last year not only highlight the challenges of political evacuation, but also reaffirm how important it is for companies to have robust evacuation plans in place, write Erin Drake and Saif Islam.
Amid rising energy costs and inflation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, Europe now faces the added challenge of the continent’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War 2. Richard Gardiner writes that these pressures, and the associated escalation in the cost of living, could drive sustained civil unrest in Europe in the coming year.
The Russia / Ukraine conflict will have a long-standing and widespread impact on the global order, resulting in unique but interconnected regional consequences across the world, write Markus Korhonen and Gabrielle Reid.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has taken longer than Russian President Vladimir Putin expected. Amid a prolonged conflict, Gabrielle Reid and Markus Korhonen examine the widespread shocks across various industries likely to have a long-lasting impact on the global economy.