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A Ruling Party Divided: South Africa's African National Congress in 2017

The December 2017 National Conference of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) will likely determine the new President of South Africa, and will mark an important point in the party’s evolution. The party has dominated elections since the beginning of majority rule in 1994, and retains a significant degree of moral authority given its role in the struggle against Apartheid. However, whilst there is substantial loyalty to the party as an institution, its current leadership is widely criticised and stagnant policy implementation has led to mounting public frustrations surrounding service delivery. 

The party faced significant losses at the polls in local government elections in August 2016, testament to the waning popularity of the party in light of growing popular disillusionment. Since then, the ANC has proven increasingly divided as internal reformists and party stalwarts call on the ANC leadership to recall its compromised leader, President Jacob Zuma. However, despite numerous political scandals and allegations of corruption, the current National Executive Council (NEC) has continued to back President Zuma, claiming any leadership change should be achieved through consensus at the national conference. December 2017 will, therefore, present the requisite arena for the ANC camps to fight it out and select a new NEC, the primary decision-making body that will determine the future direction of the ANC, and South Africa. 
Dlamini Zuma and Ramaphosa

Nevertheless, with factionalism worsening in the party, a leader capable of reuniting the ANC is an unlikely aspiration. The succession battle is well underway, with various players backing South African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, current African Union Commission Chair Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, as well as the incumbent.

Although it is unprecedented for an ANC leader to serve more than two terms, it is not prohibited, and a renewed term under President Zuma is not yet off the cards. If he is successful in securing the support of the new NEC, his tenure as president will be secured until the 2019 national election. Yet, with the incumbent having largely become the face of a troubled ANC, party loyalists may be unwilling to sacrifice further popular support by backing him. If the reformists are victorious in December, we could see a defeated Zuma recalled ahead of 2019 with the conference offering the ANC a legitimate channel to invoke a leadership change. However, if pushed to breaking point with neither camp willing to accept defeat, the December 2017 conference could mark the official split of the once dominant and unified party. Such a split will significantly alter the country’s political landscape as post-Apartheid South Africa enters a new era of a weakened ANC and potential coalition governance. 

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