Since November 2023, there has been a spate of pirate attacks off the Somali coast. Richard Gardiner discusses the factors behind these recent incidents and argues that while these developments are concerning, we are unlikely to see a return to the levels of Somali piracy experienced over a decade ago.
The start of 2024 has not been easy for Ukraine, underscored by continued weapons shortages and the loss of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. Richard Gardiner considers Ukraine’s defence prospects in 2024 and its ability to expose Russia’s looming challenges in 2025 and beyond.
As sporting organisations extend their global reach and accumulate greater wealth, they face increased susceptibility to various threats, including criminal activities and targeted attacks that jeopardise the safety of athletes, coaches, and spectators. Additionally, a perceived lack of social awareness and responsibility within teams and organisations…
Since launching a coordinated offensive in the Shan State, the Three Brotherhood Alliance has dealt a series of significant blows to Myanmar’s armed forces. Richard Gardiner considers whether the alignment of three distinct rebel groups marks a turning point in the country's civil conflict.
A recent clash between Kosovar security forces and ethnic-Serb gunmen in northern Kosovo, and the subsequent build-up of Serbian forces on the Kosovo border, has prompted concerns of renewed conflict. Richard Gardiner considers what these events mean for the security situation in one of Europe’s most divided territories.
The reduced press freedom in several Sub-Saharan Africa countries, as outlined in the 2023 World Press Freedom Rankings, highlights the growing dangers for journalists operating in countries such as Mali, Senegal and Ethiopia, among others. Richard Gardiner investigates the drivers of the growing threats to journalist safety and discusses some of the…
Interpol’s inaugural Global Crime Trend Report released in October 2022 underscores the growing threat that criminal activity, including organised crime and illicit trafficking, presents across the globe. This upward trend in criminality has continued in the first half of 2023. Cameron Cullen and Richard Gardiner discuss some of the notable crime developments…
With Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine now under way, pressure will build on Kyiv to demonstrate its forces can make strategic gains and prove to its Western allies that it can win the war. Richard Gardiner discusses the nature of the task at hand, and measures what success and failure would look like for Ukraine.…
Events following Imran Khan’s recent arrest illustrate the former prime minister’s popular appeal and ability to mobilise protest action. Combined with the deepening economic crisis and escalating political tensions ahead of the October elections, Pakistan faces a period of significant instability and rising levels of civil unrest, writes Richard Gardiner.…
Amid an increase in kidnappings in the Oromia Region driven by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Richard Gardiner analyses the modus operandi of the OLA and who is most at risk.
Two years after the 2021 military coup, Myanmar’s political and security crisis shows little sign of easing. Richard Gardiner discusses why neither the military nor resistance groups currently possess the requisite capabilities to gain the upper hand.
As Russia steps up offensive operations, Ukraine will have to endure a nervous wait for vital western military aid, including tanks, that will boost their own ability to stage a counteroffensive in the spring. Richard Gardiner discusses how both sides are under pressure to succeed and considers the trajectory of the conflict over the coming months.