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    France loses its footing in the Sahel

    As France’s security influence has waned in the Sahel, countries such as Russia, China and Turkey have been eager to take its place. Richard Gardiner discusses the changing geopolitical dynamics at play in the region and considers the impact this will have on Sahelian commercial environment.


    Oil, oil, oil: The price of Libya's transactional politics

    Richard Gardiner considers how Libyan stakeholders continue to use oil to further their own agendas in the midst of a deepening political crisis and argues that further disruptions to oil exports are inevitable unless long-term stability is achieved.


    No let-up in sight: Kidnapping in the Sahel

    As the security crisis in the Sahel has escalated, so has the threat of kidnapping for ransom. With numerous threat actors active within the region, Richard Gardiner explores the drivers of this increase in abductions and discusses the threat to foreign nationals.


    The Ukrainian crisis: A recipe for civil unrest in Europe

    Amid rising energy costs and inflation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, Europe now faces the added challenge of the continent’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War 2. Richard Gardiner writes that these pressures, and the associated escalation in the cost of living, could drive sustained civil unrest in Europe in the coming year.