Following the historic prisoner exchange between Russia and the US in August, Jameson Lisak examines how the exchange happened despite US-Russia relations being at an all-time low, and why foreign nationals remain at risk of politically motivated detentions in Russia.
Ukraine’s claims of supporting the Tuareg rebel attack on Malian and Wagner forces in July were poorly received in West Africa, complicating Ukraine’s efforts to improve its influence on the continent. Richard Gardiner explores the dangers of Ukraine mimicking Russia’s Africa strategy, highlighting instead the benefits of playing the longer diplomacy…
The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump was a shocking moment in US history, taking place amid deep societal divisions and a tense political climate. Richard Gardiner examines the factors driving political violence and social unrest in the US and assesses the threat they pose as the country approaches the November elections.
The strong links between criminal groups in South Africa and Mozambique have led to the development of sophisticated kidnapping syndicates in both countries. Richard Gardiner explores the factors that have facilitated these ties and why the current situation is unlikely to change anytime soon.
Slowly but surely, Ukraine is weakening Russia’s hold on Crimea, bolstered by the recent deployment of advanced long-range Western weapons systems. Richard Gardiner argues that while this will not secure a decisive victory for Ukraine in the war, it will still have significant implications for Russia, which has always viewed Crimea as a critical linchpin…
Since November 2023, there has been a spate of pirate attacks off the Somali coast. Richard Gardiner discusses the factors behind these recent incidents and argues that while these developments are concerning, we are unlikely to see a return to the levels of Somali piracy experienced over a decade ago.
The start of 2024 has not been easy for Ukraine, underscored by continued weapons shortages and the loss of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. Richard Gardiner considers Ukraine’s defence prospects in 2024 and its ability to expose Russia’s looming challenges in 2025 and beyond.
As sporting organisations extend their global reach and accumulate greater wealth, they face increased susceptibility to various threats, including criminal activities and targeted attacks that jeopardise the safety of athletes, coaches, and spectators. Additionally, a perceived lack of social awareness and responsibility within teams and organisations…
Since launching a coordinated offensive in the Shan State, the Three Brotherhood Alliance has dealt a series of significant blows to Myanmar’s armed forces. Richard Gardiner considers whether the alignment of three distinct rebel groups marks a turning point in the country's civil conflict.
A recent clash between Kosovar security forces and ethnic-Serb gunmen in northern Kosovo, and the subsequent build-up of Serbian forces on the Kosovo border, has prompted concerns of renewed conflict. Richard Gardiner considers what these events mean for the security situation in one of Europe’s most divided territories.
The reduced press freedom in several Sub-Saharan Africa countries, as outlined in the 2023 World Press Freedom Rankings, highlights the growing dangers for journalists operating in countries such as Mali, Senegal and Ethiopia, among others. Richard Gardiner investigates the drivers of the growing threats to journalist safety and discusses some of the…
Interpol’s inaugural Global Crime Trend Report released in October 2022 underscores the growing threat that criminal activity, including organised crime and illicit trafficking, presents across the globe. This upward trend in criminality has continued in the first half of 2023. Cameron Cullen and Richard Gardiner discuss some of the notable crime developments…