One week after President Sebastián Piñera lauded Chile as “an oasis” of tranquillity among its Latin American counterparts, demonstrations swept Santiago and other urban centres. The catalyst was a small increase to metro fares in Santiago, announced on 7 October. Despite the president’s swift withdrawal of the increase in response to widespread anger, demonstrators defied curfews and a state of emergency. They continued to protest over other longstanding grievances, particularly economic inequality.

The impact of these demonstrations has been severe; in the first two weeks, several businesses and supermarkets were looted, factories and malls were set alight, and at least 20 people were killed. Metro lines in Santiago suspended operations following clashes between protesters and police, and thousands of people were arrested. Although the protests escalated rapidly, coupled with acts of looting and sabotage, most demonstrations have been peaceful. Despite isolated calls for the president’s resignation and uncertainty over the movement’s trajectory, the largely uncoordinated protesters have not yet demonstrated the ability to stage an insurrection.

CAUTIOUS SUPPORT

Due to prudent economic policies, Chile has avoided the recessions and austerity measures which have prompted recent anti-government protests in neighbouring countries such as Argentina. But, while Chile remains one of Latin America’s wealthiest countries, it has the highest rate of inequality among Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states. To date, protest participation has been dominated by those most affected by Chile’s uneven distribution of wealth, such as students and street vendors. Those less affected by inequality have supported the protests, but have not joined the demonstrations en masse. Many people – including business owners – have denounced the isolated acts of violence associated with the unrest. Similarly, weak and fractured political parties and student unions have allied with the protesters but have not displayed an intent to lead them.

A MOVEMENT DIVIDED

Demonstrators have also not displayed a coherent anti-government agenda. While a few have demanded President Piñera’s resignation, and burned effigies of him in the street, others have protested poor healthcare, education and social justice, or raised concerns about the environment, low pensions and increased privatisation.

BETWEEN APPEASEMENT AND FORCE

Unclear protest demands and a heavy-handed security response have hindered the potential for successful negotiations between protesters and the government, which has prolonged unrest. For example, on 22 October, President Piñera met with opposition leaders to explore options to stem the unrest. The result was a proposal to increase pensions, raise the minimum wage and revoke an electricity rate increase scheduled to take effect in November 2019. The proposal also includes increased wealth taxation. While some protest leaders have declared these concessions a “victory…in [overhauling] the government’s economic agenda,” others have claimed that the measures are simply “cosmetic.” Not even the 28 October announcement of a cabinet reshuffle and ministerial replacements – and lifting the state of emergency – has quelled the protests. This further illustrates the lack of coordination and goals among various protesting groups. It also suggests that protests may continue unless a comprehensive agreement is reached with all stakeholders. 

Speaking from Santiago’s military barracks on 21 October, the president claimed that “we [the country] are at war." Acute displays of looting and sabotage have led the government to deploy 20,000 security personnel to patrol the streets, which protesters have compared to the militarised governance of the Augusto Pinochet era. This response has increased tensions between the  Government and demonstrators, prompting some groups to reject the possibility of talks, which will likely further delay inclusive negotiations to deescalate the situation

ADDRESSING THE SIREN CALLS

While the demonstrations remain volatile, in its current form, the protest movement lacks the broader support base and leadership required to develop into a sustained insurrection. Furthermore, unless the protesters’ attention shifts to a clear anti-government agenda, this lack of focus will likely hinder the demonstrations from organising into a coherent mass-movement with a unanimous goal of toppling the government. 

Despite President Piñera’s initial vow to turn a deaf ear to the “siren calls” of the protesters when demonstrations first occurred, his subsequent efforts at negotiating reforms and adjusting his cabinet suggest that the government will continue to engage with stakeholders to reach a solution. While this may appease some, the grievances driving the unrest will persist. In particular, the uneven distribution of the country’s wealth will continue to manifest as predominantly peaceful but disruptive protests, punctuated by isolated incidents of sabotage, looting and clashes.