2016 marked the further expansion of Islamist terrorism in Europe, with the emergence of a dual threat of directed and inspired attacks. In light of Islamic State (IS)’s demonstrated ability to establish operational networks in countries such as Belgium, France, and Germany, centrally-coordinated attacks in the European Union (EU) will remain a threat in 2017.
Under increasing pressure in its territories in Iraq and Syria, IS will continue its call for supporters in Europe and North America to carry out domestic attacks, rather than attempt to travel to conflict zones in Syria and Iraq. Tactically, the 2016 attacks in Nice and Berlin underscored a focus on more rudimentary methods of attack in Europe that can yield high casualty numbers and result in significant disruptions. Vehicle-ramming and knife attacks are likely to be become a blueprint for would-be terrorists over the coming year.