Rising crime in Peru: Key drivers and challenges

"This is the last time I warn you. The next time I will not just break your fingernail. There will be other measures.” This is the chilling message the councillor of Lima’s Comas District received in May – from a gang member demanding USD 135 a week for ‘protection’ – amid a considerable rise in criminality over the past year. As of 31 August, more than 1,800 extortion cases have been reported this year, although the actual number is probably much higher. The rise in extortion has coincided with an increase in contract killings, as the failure to pay extortion fees can result in deadly consequences. Of the 700 homicides registered in Lima in 2022, more than half of them were contract killings – a trend that appears to be continuing this year. Other crimes against property and persons, such as kidnapping and armed robbery, have not only surged in recent months but also returned to, and in some cases exceeded, pre-COVID-19 levels.

Complex drivers behind the surge

There are complex political, socio-economic and security dynamics driving this crime wave, in addition to longstanding challenges relating to corruption, inefficiency and lack of police resources. The Peruvian economy is also yet to fully recover from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The related rise in poverty and unemployment has affected many local residents and economic migrants, making criminal activities an increasingly tempting alternative for income. Furthermore, the removal of left-wing President Pedro Castillo in December 2022 has fuelled political turmoil in the country, leading to protests against his right-wing successor, President Dina Boluarte. This instability has not only harmed public safety but also economic performance and investor confidence. Peru's GDP has seen three monthly contractions this year – compared to only one monthly contraction between 2008 and 2022 – and investment in the vital mining sector may plummet by over 15 percent.

These political and socio-economic challenges are being exploited by several Peruvian and transnational criminal entities, notably the Tren de Aragua, which is involved in extortion, human and narcotics trafficking, contract assassinations and other crimes. With its operational presence extending to ten out of 24 departments in Peru, including Lima, Tren de Aragua remains intent on further consolidating its foothold in the country.

Demand for stricter anti-crime measures

In the midst of escalating crime and popular demand for greater government action, the authorities have increased police patrols in the streets, deploying an additional 3,500 police personnel across Lima in April, for example. The policing budget has been increased by 14 percent for the 2023-24 fiscal year. Efforts are also underway to intensify police raids against drug trafficking operations. Boluarte has primarily blamed economic migrants from neighbouring countries (such as Venezuela) for the uptick in crime, and in April, her administration temporarily declared a state of emergency in seven border regions and ordered the deployment of the military to reinforce border controls. However, local observers reject the notion that migrants are to blame for the surge in crime, which, despite recent government measures, continues unabated.

Many local government leaders, politicians and members of the public are increasingly demanding a more comprehensive anti-crime strategy, like the one currently in place in El Salvador. In fact, President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador recently took to social media to ask whether Peru should implement a sweeping anti-gang operation, akin to the one he has spearheaded in his own country. Boluarte and her allies, however, promptly dismissed the notion.

Government’s tough balancing act

Boluarte's reluctance to initiate a sweeping anti-crime operation like El Salvador's is both practical and political. Unlike El Salvador, Peru lacks the resources and infrastructure for such a campaign. And political calculations are evident; Bukele’s operation arrested over 70,000 individuals suspected of gang affiliations since March 2022, reducing crime but also sparking human rights concerns as many innocent people were also arrested or harmed. Boluarte, who has already faced criticism for her strong-handed approach toward anti-government protesters, wishes to steer clear of more allegations of human rights violations.

For the foreseeable future, the Peruvian government's primary focus will be power consolidation and opposition containment. Despite surviving initial mass protests following Castillo's removal – events that led to dozens of fatalities – the administration continues to grapple with significant anti-government sentiment and sporadic demonstrations. Boluarte's approval rating sits below 25 percent as of June 2023, but she remains steadfast, refusing to bow to opposition calls for her resignation, new parliamentary elections, or thorough inquiries into protester deaths.

In this climate of partisanship and resource constraints, the persistent challenge of criminality is poised to endure, casting a long shadow over the government's capacity to mount an effective response.