Pulling the Crocodiles's Teeth: Mnangagwa's post-election challenges

On 23 June, two people were killed and 49 injured, in a suspected grenade attack at a political rally at White City Stadium in Bulawayo. The attack took place as President Emmerson Mnangagwa was leaving the stage of the Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) event. Although the attack remains unclaimed, it is widely believed to have been orchestrated by factions from within Zanu-PF in a blatant display of divisions in the ruling party. Since unseating long-serving leader, Robert Mugabe, in November 2017, President Mnangagwa has worked hard to placate Zanu-PF stalwarts, the military leaders that put him in power and the public. Now, should he be victorious in the 31 July elections or a potential run off, it will bring new legitimacy to his position. Yet, President Mnangagwa will face new challenges in the post-election period. With the opposition gaining ground in the polls, a weakened Zanu- PF may prove less tolerable to President Mnangagwa’s reforms and he will likely face significant internal friction going forward.

Mnangagwa unseated former President Robert Mugabe on 19 November 2017 after the Zimbabwe Defence Force (ZDF), led by Constantino Chiwenga, successfully orchestrated a non-violent coup d’état. The military intervention followed overt efforts by the long-serving leader to secure power within the party for his wife, Grace Mugabe, and her allies, a faction of younger Zanu-PF members, known as the Generation 40 (G40). While Mnangagwa’s appointment as president under the ZDF was met by widespread public jubilation and optimism, he has been unsuccessful in consolidating his power in Zanu-PF, as most clearly demonstrated in the 23 June attack. Although prominent leaders of the G40 group were removed from government, including Grace Mugabe, Finance Minister Ignatius Combo, Minister of Higher Education Jonathan Moyo and Minister of Local Government, Rural Development and National Housing Saviour Kaskuwere, Mnangagwa has failed to win the support of remaining G40 players. Mnangagwa’s failure to reconcile G40 members, and consolidate the party will result in significant hurdles in the president’s reformist agenda, with some commentators predicting a Zanu- PF split as more defectors leave for the National Patriotic Front and other opposition parties. Delays in pushing policy through a parliament of divided loyalty will likely shrink the optimism of both the public and potential investors.

Meanwhile, President Mnangagwa has also had to pay tribute to the men who put him in power. Former chief of the ZDF, Chiwenga and former commander of the Zimbabwe Air Force, Perence Shiri, were both given powerful political positions within the party following their instrumental role in the coup d’etat. Chiwenga has also been cited as President Mnangagwa’s likely successor for the 2023 elections. The increased military involvement in the political sphere will negatively impact President Mnangagwa’s vision of a “new democracy,” aimed at political and economic reform, and it is likely that President Mnangagwa will remain accountable to Chiwenga in the longer term should he secure the presidency. Holding the incumbent to ransom, should the former military commander feel that President Mnangagwa is failing to represent key interests, Chiwenga could seek to secure his own ascension sooner.

However, President Mnangagwa’s most pressing hurdle will be managing the outcome of the 31 July elections. Promising and delivering free and fair elections has meant that Zanu-PF faced its toughest public audit at the ballot box. Already, polls in the lead up to the election demonstrated growing support for the opposition, specifically, the main opposition candidate Nelson Chamisa, of the Movement for Democratic Change – Tsvangirai (MDC-T). Between public polls conducted in May and June, Chamisa’s support grew from 31 to 37 percent, while Mnangagwa’s support fell by two percent. Nevertheless, although at the time of writing, it appeared that the opposition had not done enough to unseat Zanu-PF, an already divided party is unlikely to survive a potential coalition government. It is also highly likely that the opposition will dispute the election results. Chamisa continues to question the neutrality of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, and its chair, Priscilla Chigimba, who is considered a prominent Zanu-PF supporter, having been previously photographed wearing Zanu-PF memorabilia. Opposition challenges to the election will test President Mnangagwa’s demonstrated tolerance and willingness to increase political freedoms in the country and there remains a low likelihood that he may revert back to Mugabe era tactics of oppressing political freedoms. 

Although the removal of Robert Mugabe has ushered in a new hope for many citizens and foreign governments, the suspected grenade attack in Bulawayo on 23 June, served as a reminder that the future of Zimbabwe’s political landscape remains divided. President Mnangagwa’s reformist campaign will remain at the hands of a divided ruling party. Meanwhile, past obligations to the military elite means President Mnangagwa has given important influence to Chiwenga and others, making the president accountable to someone other than the people. Mnangagwa will have to find the balance between keeping his promises of a new tolerant democracy, and appeasing his military kingmakers if his efforts to reform post-Mugabe Zimbabwe are to be successful.