Nigeria in 2017
Editor
On the political front, with President Muhammadu Buhari already 22 months into his presidential tenure, criticism against him is mounting. President Buhari’s hands-on attitude has encouraged a centralised and autocratic approach that has been ill-received by the electorate and led to waning support for the ruling All People’s Congress (APC). In response, local commentators are expecting disillusioned APC members to join the ranks of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) defectors in the anticipated creation of a new opposition coalition, set to challenge both the legacy of the PDP and the novelty of the APC, in the 2019 elections.
Meanwhile, continued dampened global oil prices forecast for 2017 will further impact the country’s economic prospects. President Buhari’s economic policies, specifically his delayed decision to unpeg the wavering Naira from the US Dollar, has placed him as the target of Nigeria’s economic grievances. The electorate will be eager to hold the incumbent to account, with election promises of eliminating government corruption, and increasing economic prosperity, seemingly undeliverable in 2017. The ruling administration is therefore likely to become increasingly vulnerable to public protests in the coming year.
In addition, a worsening security environment will be yet another challenge for the incumbent. While the government has been quick to publicise its territorial successes against Boko Haram, it has failed to address the underlying drivers of Boko Haram’s success in which the group has exploited local grievances to recruit disenfranchised young men.
While the government has been quick to publicise its territorial successes against Boko Haram, it has failed to address the underlying drivers of Boko Haram’s success.
The military also remains unable to establish long-term authority in recaptured areas. As such, a divided Boko Haram, with one faction backing Abubakar Shekau’s domestic agenda, and another supporting Islamic State (IS)-backed Abu Musab Al Barnawi’s Lake Chad operations, is likely to continue attacks in the north-east in an increasingly violent competition. Meanwhile, development agencies have warned of an impending humanitarian crisis in the region, with the UN claiming that over 75,000 children in Nigeria are at risk of dying of starvation in 2017. Furthermore, the 2016 emergence of the Niger Delta Avengers, and associated militants, in the Niger Delta will continue to negatively impact investor perceptions of security in 2017. Hesitant bondholders will limit the foreign direct investment prospects for infrastructure projects needed to bolster Nigeria’s long-awaited, and much needed, economic diversification.
With these challenges set to worsen in 2017, it is increasingly likely that Nigeria’s outlook will get worse before it gets better. The ruling administration will need to be progressively open to stark policy changes, and will require support from international creditors, if it wishes to avoid sacrificing its status as one of Africa’s largest economies.