Insider Threat: Battered Britain Faces Third Terrorist Attack in Three Months

The 12-year gap between mass casualty attacks has not been for want of trying. UK authorities have disrupted a staggering 18 plots since 2013; five were aborted since March 2017 alone. Although these disrupted plots were predominantly low sophistication attacks using knives or vehicles as weapons, they also included more complex plans, similar to the suicide attack carried out in Manchester on 22 May. 

When looked at in numerical terms, it is remarkable that the UK police and security services had managed to keep a growing problem under control for so long. Figures released following the attack in Manchester highlight the scale of the problem: 500 live operations investigating 3,000 individuals, with a further 20,000 individuals on file who have featured in previous enquiries. In practical terms, UK authorities can only comprehensively monitor a proportion of the 3,000 individuals currently under investigation, and do so for a limited amount of time. Many of the group are unstable and volatile individuals; attempting to predict future behaviour based on incomplete information is a thankless task.

THE ATTACKS 

Based on the limited information available so far, the only common thread between the three attacks appears to be their shared ideological inspiration and the deliberate targeting of civilians. There is no indication that the attacks were coordinated or that the attackers knew one another. Similarly, the attackers have few shared characteristics, with varying ages (ranging from the 22-year-old Manchester attacker to the 52-year-old Westminster attacker), differing nationalities and ethnicity, and no common location or institutional link. 

Despite this apparent disconnect, and the lack of any firm evidence linking the execution of the attacks to Islamic State (IS) or Al Qaeda, the attacks followed a familiar pattern. The Westminster and London Bridge attacks are the latest in a series of vehicle-ramming attacks in Europe since July 2016, with these often followed by a secondary attack using a knife or other weapon. Similarly, the bombing of a concert venue in Manchester echoed the attack on the Bataclan, a music venue targeted during the Paris attacks in November 2015. 

There are two factors that might explain the close sequence of the attacks and be a potential indicator of future risk. 

Firstly, there is some evidence that terrorist attacks inspire copy-cat attacks. Witnessing the response to an attack, and particularly the praise attackers receive from terrorist groups and online sympathisers, can persuade susceptible individuals that violent action is legitimate and necessary.
 
Secondly, we know that IS prioritises and encourages attacks carried out during Ramadan, which began on 27 May this year. Between 13 June and 26 July 2016, Europe was hit by five terrorist attacks inspired or directed by IS. With Ramadan ending on 24 June, the next few weeks are likely to see further attempted attacks in Europe and elsewhere. Authorities are doing everything within their power to try and counter the threat.

WHAT NEXT? 

In the UK, protective concrete blocks and steel barriers have already been installed on Westminster Bridge, to prevent vehicles being used as weapons. Similar measures are likely to follow on London Bridge and elsewhere. 

Venues hosting sporting or other live events will also re-examine their security measures. However, it is extremely difficult to mitigate against an incident such as the Manchester attack – the attacker struck at the end of the event, outside the venue and beyond the range of the venue’s security measures. Any target-hardening measures risk displacing the threat further away from the venue’s perimeter, rather than removing it. 

The broader political response may hinge to an extent on the outcome of Thursday’s General Election, but regardless of the result, it is likely that UK intelligence and law enforcement agencies will receive additional funding and resources. The UK’s programmes countering extremism will also come under increased scrutiny. 

Following revelations that some of the attackers were known to UK authorities, MI5 have ordered a review into its previous investigations into the Manchester attacker and the three individuals behind the London Bridge attack. More information will emerge about the decisions taken and the rationale behind them. But if mistakes were made at an individual level, neither review is likely to result in a significant shift in focus or approach. Despite the recent attacks, the UK has world-leading intelligence and law enforcement agencies which are well-resourced and appropriately equipped with newly-legislated powers.

The unfortunate reality is that they, and authorities across Europe and beyond, face a uniquely challenging environment – one in which the limits of counter-terrorism are being tested to exhaustion by the volume of targets and the speed with which attacks can be planned and executed.