Going Dutch: Key Takeaways from the Netherlands' General Election

VOTER TURNOUT 

Approximately 13 million people were registered to vote in the election, with 28 parties competing for the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament. Just over 81 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots on 15 March, up from election turnouts of roughly 75 percent in 2010 and 2012, and the highest since 1986. It appears that voters under 40 – who typically hold more progressive views than older voters – were determined to make their mark. However, millennials (voters aged between 18 and 24 years old) had a lower turnout than in previous years; in 2012, the turnout for this age group was 70 percent, while only 66 percent voted in the latest election, despite programmes by civic rights groups to entice them to voting stations. The main spike in voter turnout was reported among 25 to 34-year-olds, 82 percent of whom voted, compared to 67 percent in 2012. While media reports indicated that good weather on election day assisted the overall high turnout, it is evident that Dutch voters also understood that this election was particularly important. 

INCUMBENT PARTIES LOSE SEATS, SMALLER PARTIES MAKE GAINS 

While the VVD received the most votes, its share of the vote and number of seats won were down on 2012. The party secured 33 seats, a loss of eight seats since the last general election. This indicates that there is some voter dissatisfaction with the performance of the current governing coalition. Nevertheless, in light of persistent fears throughout the campaign of a PVV win in the elections, Prime Minister Rutte has hailed his party’s somewhat weakened position as a victory. 

The VVD’s junior coalition partner, Partij van de Arbeid (Labour Party, PvdA), experienced a historic loss in the election. Having governed in coalition with the VVD, the PvdA lost over 75 percent of its seats, with support shedding to its left, liberal and right-wing rivals. Many left-wing PvdA supporters became disillusioned with the pro-labour party after it worked with the VVD to enact welfare cuts in the Netherlands in recent years. The PvdA’s seat share decreased from 38 to nine. This raises questions about the future of Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the incumbent Finance Minister and PvdA member. He is unlikely to maintain his ministerial position, which will jeopardise his role as chairperson of the European Union’s body for coordinating Eurozone’s financial policies. This major setback for the party suggests that voters are more likely to punish junior partners in awkward political coalitions; the PvdA’s poor showing is comparable to the Liberal Democrat’s dismal performance in the UK 2015 election after five years in coalition with the Conservative Party. While no single party won the election outright, smaller pro-European parties made gains. The centre-right Christen-Democratisch Appèl (Christian Democratic Appeal, CDA), centrist Democraten 66 (Democrats 66, D66) and progressive GroenLinks (GreenLeft, GL) managed to increase their representation by six, seven and 10 seats respectively. This means that the distribution of votes is across a comparatively larger number of parties than in previous elections, and at least one of these parties is likely to be part of the next government alongside the PVV. 

Although Wilders’ PVV did not win the election, the party has moved up from the third-largest party in the country to the second, with 13 percent of the popular vote. Punting a populist, anti-Islam manifesto, with promises that included a ban on the Quran and the closure of all mosques, Wilders used social media to popularise his rhetoric. The PVV’s result is lower than polls had initially predicted, partially due to Wilders’ failure to participate in major campaign events. While the VVD has publicly ruled out a coalition involving the PVV, Wilders still exercised significant influence over the election. Polls showing support for the PVV pushed mainstream conservative parties to adopt more restrictive stances towards immigrants and asylum seekers. This was exemplified by Prime Minister Rutte penning a public letter in January 2017, telling people who do not follow the rules in the Netherlands to “act normal or leave”.

THE TURKEY FACTOR 

The race between the VVD and PVV appeared to be tighter until a diplomatic row emerged between the Turkish and Dutch governments just over a week before the election. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attempted to send Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu to address a rally in Rotterdam, aimed at encouraging the Dutch-Turkish community to grant him greater powers in an April referendum. Rotterdam is significant for Turkish campaigners, as the city includes a large portion of the 400,000 Turkish nationals living in the Netherlands. However, according to Turkish law, it is illegal to campaign overseas, including at diplomatic missions. As such, the campaign visit was blocked by the Dutch government, with Prime Minister Rutte stating “we are of the opinion that Dutch public spaces are not the place for political campaigns of other countries.” 

The Turkish government sent another minister, Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya, by car to the Netherlands, but she was blocked from accessing the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam by Dutch police and escorted to the German border. Authorities responded to ensuing protests over the expulsion forcefully, arresting 12 Turkish demonstrators for violent assault. The strong responses to the Turkish government and associated protests made Rutte appear to be a more appealing option for right-wing swing voters, and ultimately worked in his favour. 

FOUR-PARTY COALITION? 

The VVD now needs to establish a coalition to govern for the next four years. There are currently 13 parties elected to the 150-seat parliament, and with 33 seats, the VVD needs to form a coalition to make up at least 75 seats. Given the dispersion of votes, it is likely that Prime Minister Rutte will need to form a four-party coalition in order to govern the country. This is a difficult challenge, given that the PVV has been written off as a coalition partner, and the diverse policy positions held by the remaining top six parties. Health Minister Edith Schippers has been tasked with leading negotiations with possible coalition partners, a process that could take months if impasses arise. It is likely that the VVD will link up with the CDA and D66, but the fourth party likely to be involved in the coalition is less certain. With five seats, ChristenUnie could be the fourth partner to create a 76-seat coalition, but there are concerns that such a fine majority would make the government too vulnerable to parliamentary defeats. An alternative option for a stronger coalition partner is GL, but the party’s position on several key issues is likely to clash with VVD priorities.

VICTORY AT TOO HIGH A COST? 

Progressive and centrist voters worldwide have celebrated the outcome of the vote, with Dutch moderates claiming that “we have stopped populism here in the Netherlands”. It would be short sighted, however, to perceive the Dutch elections as a litmus test for the upcoming French and German elections. There are left-wing candidates like Emmanuel Macron in France and Martin Schulz in Germany that are likely to go some way in undercutting far-right parties in these countries. Nevertheless, the Dutch election demonstrates that increasing support for extreme-right populist parties is pressuring ruling parties in Europe to adopt more populist policies in order to secure reelection.