Eurovision 2017
The Netherlands
The first key test will be general elections in theNetherlands on 15 March. Since late 2016, polls have indicated that the far-rightPartij Voor de Vrijheid (Freedom Party, PVV) will win the most seats. Led byGeert Wilders, who was indicted in December 2016 on charges of incitingdiscrimination, the party’s campaign centres on eliminating the alleged‘Islamification’ of the Netherlands and leaving the EU. Typically, the partythat wins the most seats will provide the Dutch prime minister; however, it isunlikely that centrist parties will support Wilders. If other parties band togetherto prevent Wilders from taking office, increased political divisions, includinganger among populists voters, are likely.
France
France is in a similar position to the Netherlands, with far-rightMarine Le Pen leading in the polls for the country’s presidential elections inApril and May. Her party, Front National (National Front, FN), presents a blendof anti-immigration rhetoric and economic populism. Le Pen is also likely toattempt to challenge existing EU arrangements. Although FN is struggling toraise the millions of Euros needed to fund the presidential election campaign,it appears that Le Pen is still able to harness significant popular support, asterrorism, unemployment and immigration remain at the forefront of voterconcerns. If polls prove to be reliable, she will make it to the second round wherea run-off vote is likely to take place between Le Pen and centre-rightcandidate, François Fillon.
Germany
Angela Merkel, widely seen as Europe’s most powerful politician,will run for a fourth term as Chancellor in parliamentary elections scheduledto take place on 27 September. However, hard-right parties have gained ground overthe last year, amid a rise in terrorist attacks in Germany. This has resultedin heightened concerns over assimilating migrants. The far-right Alternativefür Deutschland (Alternative for Germany, AfD) was only established in 2013, buthas shown that it can shore up significant support in the polls. According to January2017 polls, AfD has between 10 and 15 percent support and is ahead of Merkel’scentre-left coalition partners. Merkel is also facing internal conflict fromrightwing members of her party, the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands(Christian Democratic Union, CDU). While she still holds significant popularsupport, and is not expected to lose the election, it is likely she willre-enter office in a weakened position.
Italy
While no election has been called yet, former Prime MinisterMatteo Renzi’s resounding December 2016 defeat in the constitutional referendumunderscores Italian voters’ dissatisfaction with the political establishment. Thereferendum result has steered the country towards the possibility of an early electionthis year. With pressure from more than half a million illegal immigrants enteringthe country in 2016 and an imminent national debt crisis, it is not surprisingthat Eurosceptism is rising in the country. There are several oppositionparties that want the Euro scrapped, one of which is the populist Movimento 5Stelle (Five Star Movement, M5S). Depending on the electoral system used, M5Scould secure enough support from the public and political opposition parties toform a fervently anti-Euro government in the event of an early election.