Elections in Latin America: Riots, Runoffs and Reform

On 25 October, presidential and/or local elections were held in Argentina, Haiti, Guatemala, and Colombia. By and large, voting occurred peacefully, save for some isolated violence in Colombia and Haiti. Even in these countries, the elections were hailed as some of the most peaceful in recent history. The elections also demonstrated a weakening of the left across the region and a move to more centrist policies, although the final results of the Argentine and Haitian elections remain uncertain and will likely only be decided in late November. Investors will nevertheless be encouraged by Argentina’s anticipated economic reforms, tougher anticorruption laws in Guatemala, growing political support for peace negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Colombia, and the potential for long-awaited political stability in Haiti. However, any optimism about the region is likely to be weighed down by growing concern over political instability in Venezuela, where legislative elections are scheduled for 6 December.

Elections in Argentina marked the end of the socalled ‘Kirchner dynasty’, 12 years of leftist politics first under Néstor Kirchner, and then his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK). The first round of elections shocked pundits as Mauricio Macri, right-wing politician and mayor of Buenos Aires, secured a spot in an unprecedented run-off against Daniel Scioli, CFK’s handpicked successor, scheduled for 22 November 2015. Whoever wins, both candidates have promised significant economic reforms, including removing restrictive currency and trade controls implemented under the Kirchners. Change under Scioli would likely be more gradual, although reducing state-intervention in the economy seems inevitable.

Following protracted delays and increasing political tensions, Haiti held local elections in August and opened the presidential elections on 25 October. If they conclude peacefully, these elections are expected to usher in a period of long-awaited stability. The August legislative and municipal elections were marred by violence with 13 percent of the 1,508 voting centres closed amid violent confrontations between supporters of opposing candidates, voter intimidation, and widespread allegations of fraud. However, the presidential elections were comparatively far less violent. Nevertheless, a runoff vote between two of the 54 presidential hopefuls seems inevitable and is likely to be complicated by allegations of electoral fraud. Any repeat of the violence witnessed in the run up to the 2010 presidential runoff would likely reverse any progress Haiti has made over the past five years and further polarise the country’s political climate.

The political outlook in Guatemala, following a presidential runoff on 25 October, looks far more positive. Jimmy Morales, a comedian turned conservative politician, won a landslide victory with 72 percent of the vote. Until six months ago, Morales was a political non-entity until a United Nations-backed anti-graft commission exposed a high-level government corruption scandal that eventually led to the resignation and imprisonment of former president, Otto Pérez Molina, in September. Disenchanted with Guatemala’s corrupt traditional political elite, voters opted for a conservative political upstart untainted by corruption. Although inexperienced, Morales has promised to continue fighting deep-rooted corruption in the country, and there are already calls for anti-graft commissions elsewhere in the region, particularly in Honduras.

Local elections in Colombia highlighted the country’s improving security environment as well as growing public endorsement of the government’s negotiations with FARC. Candidates backed by the centrist ruling coalition won important local contests, whereas far-right and far-left candidates suffered numerous defeats. Unlike previous elections, which have been marred by FARC attacks, there was a significant decrease in political violence during the latest round of voting. Whereas 41 politically-motivated murders were reported in the run up to the 2011 local elections, only six murders were reported in 2015. Despite an improving security outlook, the recent elections revealed ties between organised criminal groups and local politicians across the country. According to government sources, at least 2,000 candidates were suspected of having ties to drug-trafficking. Ties between organised crime and local government are likely to remain long-term issues in Colombia.

2015 has been an important electoral year for a region that has seen its economic growth forecasts tumble. The recent, and largely peaceful elections, bode well for Latin America, although the potential for instability remains. Conservative governments in Colombia and Guatemala have taken important steps against militancy and corruption respectively, all the while maintaining above regional average economic growth. Argentina looks set to turn over a new leaf, although just how soon depends on who wins the November runoff. However, similar reform in Venezuela, dubbed the region’s ‘basket case’, is unlikely. Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro, has vowed not to accept defeat in December’s legislative elections, further elevating the risk of political violence in the country. Moreover, unless Haiti’s electoral commission can ensure the credibility of the country’s general elections, Haiti also risks lapsing into similar chaos.