Bangkok Bombing: Refocusing on Thailand's Terrorism Threats

On 17 August, a bomb exploded at the Erawan Shrine near the Ratchaprasong junction, a major tourist thoroughfare, during Bangkok’s rush hour. The three-kilogram pipe-bomb caused unprecedented damage, claiming the lives of over 20 people and injuring more than 100 others. Following the attack, another pipe bomb was thrown from the Saphan Taksin Bridge, approximately 10km from the Erawan Shrine, targeting the Sathorn pier, a busy transport hub in Bangkok. However, the bomb missed its target and detonated in the water, causing no injuries. Though Thailand has a history of terrorism, the Erawan Shrine bombing is a significant deviation from the more common, politically motivated and small-scale attacks that have previously occurred in Bangkok. Notably, the perpetrators intended to produce mass casualties as well as damage to Thailand’s tourism industry and wider economy.

Investigations into the attack are ongoing. Thai security officials, at the time of writing, have arrested two suspects. The first suspect was arrested on 29 August on the outskirts of Bangkok in Min Buri district; he was in possession of a fake Turkish passport and bomb-making materials. A second foreigner, currently considered to be the primary suspect, was arrested in Kaeo province, east of Bangkok, on 1 September. Similar to the first suspect, bomb-making materials and forged passports were found at his residence. He was also in possession of a Chinese passport, believed to be genuine, that indicated has was born in Xinjiang, home to China’s minority Muslim Uighur population. Though investigators remain in pursuit of several other foreign suspects, the available evidence so far indicates that police could be dealing with a militant network of Uighur sympathisers.

Thailand has been criticised for the recent deportation of 100 Uighurs, ethnic Turk Muslims, back to China on 9 July 2015. Uighurs are a Turkic language speaking Muslim minority in China that have claimed to be facing increasing oppression of their religious and cultural rights. As such, there has been significant speculation that Uighur separatists fighting for autonomy in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of China could target Thailand. Notably, the deportation of the Uighurs sparked protests in Turkey, where activists attacked Thailand’s consulate in Istanbul and also held demonstrations outside the Chinese Embassy in Ankara, the Turkish capital. Such vehement opposition to the military junta’s deportation of the Uighurs makes Thailand susceptible to an attack by Uighur sympathisers, especially those of Turkish nationality as they share a common cultural and religious heritage with the Uighurs. For example, the Grey Wolves, an ultra-nationalist Turkish militant organisation, angered by Thailand’s deportation of the Uighurs, could represent a potential threat. Not only does the organisation have the capability and intent to conduct an attack, they also have the logistical support in Thailand, due to their ties with Turkish crime gangs in Bangkok.

In southern Thailand, where a low-level insurgency persists, separatist rebels regularly stage attacks, although these only rarely cause mass casualties or significant damage. The capital city, Bangkok, has also experienced several bomb and grenade attacks, especially since the coup of May 2014. These attacks have largely been attributed to Thailand’s volatile political climate, driven by tensions between supporters of the aristocratic elite and ruling military junta, and Thais that favour the Shinawatras, a political family that receives its support from rural workers and the urban working class. Yet, as in southern Thailand, attacks in Bangkok have generally been small-scale, typified by shootings and the detonation of small explosive devices targeting political gatherings, government buildings, and security personnel. Consequently, the modus operandi of the Erawan Shrine attack deviates substantially from any previous attacks in the city. In addition, though the Erawan Shrine attack was not directed at government or military interests, it clearly served to tarnish the junta’s claim of being the most viable authority for maintaining order and stability in Thailand.

Other terrorist activities motivated by anti-government sentiment have occurred sporadically in Bangkok and across the rest of Thailand. These attacks are generally attributed to the Red Shirts, a group supporting former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who was ousted by the ruling junta in May 2014. Since then, the Red Shirts have been accused of carrying out several low-impact bombings and other terrorist attacks. In particular, a radical and militant branch of the Red Shirts, known as the Black Shirts, has a history of carrying out explosive and armed attacks against security forces and pro-military and monarchy groups. Such attacks are mainly staged in Bangkok, targeting government and military interests as well as popular public places.

Another terrorism threat relates to Malay Muslim insurgents, who have waged a decades-long low-level insurgency against the government as part of their campaign to re-establish an independent sultanate in southern Thailand. Malay Muslim insurgents regularly stage shootings and bombings against security forces and Buddhist interests. Attacks have historically been concentrated in the southern provinces of Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat, and Songkhla, collectively known as the Deep South. As their grievances are of a local nature, Malay Muslim insurgents mainly target government and military interest. Attacks generally involve the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), guns and knives. The most active Malay Muslim militant group is the Barisan Revolusi Nasional.

Irrespective of who carried out the Erawan Shrine attack, the Bangkok bombing could set back Thailand’s economic growth prospects for the short term. As Thailand’s economy struggles to bounce back following the political unrest of 2014, the tourism sector is one of the few industries driving growth in the country. A loss of tourism revenues due to terrorism fears amongst potential visitors could dampen growth prospects. Travel agencies in Hong Kong cancelled visits to Bangkok until the end of August, for example, and several countries have issued travel advisories regarding Bangkok and Thailand in general. Aware of the negative repercussions that this attack could have on investor sentiment and tourism, Thai officials cleared up the blast site unusually quickly to reinforce the idea that business is continuing as usual. However, it is more important that the government acts decisively to identify the culprits behind the bombing and ensure that the Erawan Shrine attack does not represent a worrying upward trend in the terrorism threat.