Analyst Insight: Barcelona Attacks

Q: Is the latest attack in Spain different to other attacks we’ve witnessed elsewhere in Europe? 

I would frame the Barcelona attack as falling within the existing baseline terrorism threat in Europe. IS has demonstrated the intent and capability to target the region on multiple occasions. Islamist attacks in the region have involved weapons with varying degrees of sophistication, but recent plots have increasingly relied on readily-available weapons like vehicles or knives. Indicative of this, we have witnessed an increasing number of vehicleramming attacks in multiple European countries, including the UK, France, Germany, and now Spain. Basic tactics are likely to continue to be a preferred option for would-be jihadists in Europe, with varying degrees of success. However, this does not mean that all plots will not involve more complex weapons like explosives. This is evident in the latest attack, as well as the May 2017 Manchester bombing. The target was also similar to previous attacks elsewhere in Europe in recent years, as Las Ramblas is one of the busiest pedestrian thoroughfares in Barcelona. 

In terms of threat actors, it’s important to acknowledge that the existing threat from Islamist terrorism in the region is multifaceted. While investigations into the latest attack in Spain are still underway, it appears that the attack was perpetrated by a relatively large and coordinated cell; it is believed that 12 people were involved in the attack, with five shot dead, two more thought to have accidentally blown themselves up, four others in custody and one, Younes Abouyaaqoub, later shot by police. At this point, it’s unclear whether any of the suspects had travelled to fight alongside IS militants in Syria or Iraq, but it is evident that significant coordination was involved between them in planning the attack. While IS aims to incite unaffiliated and untrained individuals to carry out ‘do-it-yourself’ style attacks, this latest attack demonstrates that the group also maintains networks of trained individuals and recruiters in different parts of Europe. Nevertheless, both coordinated and ‘lone actor’ attacks can have significant impact in terms of damage and loss of human life. This latest case speaks to an overall expansion in the types of terrorist actors and tactics, which presents a significant challenge for counter-terrorism agencies throughout Europe. 

Q: Speaking of which, how well equipped are Spanish counter-terrorism authorities? 

Since the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the Spanish government has invested significant resources into upgrading its intelligence capabilities, particularly as Spanish counter-terrorism police are acutely aware of IS’s intent to target the country. Given that the militant group believes that Spain is a part of its caliphate, IS has called for attacks against the country in an effort to “recover our land from the invaders”. Indicative of this, according to figures from June 2017, more than 1,000 people were reportedly on the Spanish police’s radar at the time, 259 of whom were being investigated, and approximately 500 telephones were being tapped for counterterrorism investigations. Furthermore, Spanish police have carried out frequent counter-terrorism arrests, with at least 135 people arrested on terrorism-related charges between January 2016 and August 2017. 

Numerous planned attacks have also been averted as a result of Spain’s robust intelligence capabilities, including one in June by two men of Moroccan origin who were allegedly planning to orchestrate an attack in Madrid using vehicles and explosives. One of them had sought to acquire a licence for a specific type of truck, the same as the one used to kill 86 people in Nice on Bastille Day last year. Aside from the group’s leader, Abdelbaki Essati, none of the other individuals involved in the Las Ramblas attack were known to Spanish authorities. Like intelligence failures in the UK during the latest attacks, it therefore appears that even well-resourced intelligence agencies are over-whelmed by the sheer volume of individuals and communications to monitor. The Barcelona attack underscores that the Islamist terrorism threat may only be partially managed. Even with the best intelligence, plots occasionally go undetected.

Q: What can we expect in terms of attack patterns in Europe going forward? 

Unfortunately, we are likely to see more attacks. IS sympathisers will see the Barcelona attack as a success, which will inspire others to continue to attempt attacks using similar tactics. Perhaps a more worrying development pertains to a recent publication by Al Qaeda this month, calling on its followers to carry out sabotage attacks to derail commuter trains. The article was written for its propaganda magazine, Inspire, and provides detailed instructions of how to create a “homemade derail tool”, with pictures, diagrams and field tactics included. The article explicitly notes that “it is practically impossible to secure the entire railroad in [a country]”, highlighting a major security gap for possibly devastating attacks in the future. Furthermore, a train derailment attack would not require any sophisticated weapons or significant training. While the article largely focussed on the US, such tactics could be replicated in any country and Europe is likely to remain a target.