African Elections 2015: Polls, Promises and Protests

In 2015, at least 12 sub-Saharan countries head to the polls, with a further six preparing for elections in early 2016. The upcoming ballots have the potential to catalyse significant changes for the continent’s political landscape. However, of the 18 countries set to vote over the next two years, 15 presidents will likely seek another term, whether they are constitutionally eligible to do so or not. In their attempts to prolong their tenures, these leaders may risk both their personal grasp on power and their country’s stability. Many have asked whether the developments in Burkina Faso in late 2014, which saw the overthrow of long-term leader Blaise Compaoré through popular insurrection, will serve as a warning to other long-serving African leaders. The reality is that, in many countries, the zero-sum political game offers little incentive to step down. The elections are an opportunity to re-invigorate the party-political life of several African states, however in reality they are unlikely to result in a substantial shift in the established order.

Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan is facing his toughest election campaign yet, with a consolidated and strengthening opposition, in the form of the newly-formed All Progressive Congress (APC), under the leadership of Muhammadu Buhari. Furthermore, Jonathan has come under intense criticism over the government’s ineffective response to combating the Boko Haram insurgency in the north east as well several high-profile corruption scandals. Yet, Jonathan may still stem the tide and retain the presidency following the 14 February vote, having maintained support among Nigeria’s business elite as well as the large Christian Evangelical communities. He also recently garnered support from northern ministers following a September 2014 cabinet reshuffle. However, if Jonathan were to be re-elected he is unlikely to provide immediate solutions to Nigeria’s domestic problems or appease his political opponents. Violent unrest, similar to that seen in the 2011 elections, remains highly likely.

Togo’s election may also prove volatile. The government and opposition have yet to reach consensus over electoral reforms concerning presidential term limits. These reforms, part of 2006 political agreement, have become a key rallying point for Togo’s strengthening civic movement, the Collectif Sauvons le Togo (CST). The CST has already launched popular protests in Lomé and demonstrations targeting incumbent president, Faure Gnassingbe, are likely to intensify ahead of the March ballot. It remains uncertain as to whether the CST will garner the requisite public support to prompt an uprising mirroring that of Burkina Faso. However, it is unlikely that any presidential election result will quell political grievances among Togo’s population, notably those concerning local elections, which have been postponed in Togo since 1986.

Sudan too is set to face elections on 2 April. An agreement unifying the National Umma Party (NUP), backed by opposition coalition, the National Consensus Forces (NCF), and the umbrella rebel grouping, Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), dubbed the Paris Declaration, aimed to peacefully depose the Al Bashir regime. However, the SRF has continued its armed campaign against the government. The upcoming elections thus offer little redress to the ongoing conflicts in Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile regions. Moreover, with an opposition boycott largely making the elections null and void, the ballot will not alter Sudan’s political landscape. While Khartoum, Omdurman and Port Sudan could become the focal points for sustained and potentially violent anti-government protests, Sudan’s elusive revolution will remain at bay as Al Bashir’s regime continues to crackdown on opposition.

Undeterred by Compaoré’s losses, Pierre Nkurunziza, president of Burundi, has declared his intention to contest the June election and seek a third presidential term. Nkurunziza’s campaign comes despite his failure to secure an amendment to the constitution’s two-term limit in March 2014. Mounting violence over alleged government interference in voter registration is already causing concern amongst civil society groups and international observers. Moreover, the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) recently boycotted the launched of the United Nations observer mission for the elections, further indicating that the CNDDFDD has not prioritised international transparency measures. Nkurunziza has sought to exclude his political rivals amid his own dwindling popularity.

These efforts may disrupt the fragile ethnically-based power equilibrium put in place after the prolonged civil war. Burundi’s conflict history may thus result in the politically-snubbed seeking an armed campaign against Nkurunziza over ethnic allegiances should Nkurunziza retain his seat in office. The elections across Africa in 2015 seem to be an opportunity for political change across the continent, particularly following events in Burkina Faso which demonstrated the potential clout of protest movements. However, although the voting could encourage greater internal political debate in some countries, they are unlikely to lead to a tangible power shift in most countries. Nonetheless, Compare’s experience should serve as a warning to other African leaders seeking to extend their mandates, in particular the importance of popular backing to validate their ambitions.