A Season of Violence: Zimbabwe Prepares for Elections in 2018

In 2008, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) leader, Morgan Tsvangirai became the only candidate to come close to an electoral victory over President Robert Mugabe. Tsvangirai won 47.9 percent of the vote before largescale state-sponsored violence against MDC-T supporters forced his withdrawal from the race. Now in an attempt to rectify the near 14 percent drop in MDC-T voters in 2013, Tsvangirai has signed a memorandum of understanding with former Vice President, and ZANU-PF member, Joice Mujuru, of the newly created National People’s Party (NPP). The agreement signals their intent to form a grand coalition of the opposition. The MDCT’s support base is largely urban, while the NPP draws support from rural ZANU-PF strongholds. A united opposition will pose a formidable challenge to ZANU-PF at the polls and the state’s recent crackdown on opposition supporters indicates that the government takes the threat of the opposition coalition seriously. 

Additional pressure comes from the unprecedented civil unrest that Zimbabwe has experienced since 2013, culminating in the widespread #ThisFlag movement in June 2016. Pro-democracy movements such as #ThisFlag, and its human rightsbased counterpart #Tajamuka, have since vowed to pressure the government to address the ongoing deterioration of the economy and human rights abuses. The apolitical nature of these movements, and their skillful use of social media, enable them to create online platforms for discussion across political and other divides. They have therefore been able to win broad-based support from a newly emboldened citizenry willing to take action against ZANU-PF. 

Yet, all indications are that – despite efforts to the contrary - the opposition are not prepared for the onslaught. The opposition has been preoccupied with leadership disputes rather than policy or strategy, resulting in disillusion among voters. The future of the coalition appears doubtful and it is unlikely that any opposition party will have the overwhelming support necessary to defeat an increasingly desperate and cunning ZANU-PF. The protest movements have had greater success in pressuring the government. However, the movements have yet to build alliances with other civil society actors, or find ways to mobilise citizens not active on social media in the traditional ZANUPF support bases of rural Zimbabwe. 

In this regard, the most ominous challenge to the ruling administration, lies within ZANU-PF itself. The 2018 elections are likely to be 93-year old President Mugabe’s last. He has nevertheless refused to name a successor, leaving rival factions to coalesce around Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa – who enjoys strong ties to the security sector – and less popular, but well-connected, First Lady, Grace Mugabe. Attempts to consolidate support ahead of the much-anticipated succession have already resulted in violent confrontations between supporters of the two camps. Tension regarding the issue has also led to open criticism of the President by key elements of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association. The war veterans are among President Mugabe’s oldest sources of support and have actively participated in acts of state suppression. Their open condemnation of the President’s “vitriol” against “perceived enemies,” including peaceful protesters, is therefore unlikely to be out of concern for civilians. Rather, it indicates their frustration with President Mugabe’s lack of endorsement for Mnangagwa, who is best placed to secure their interests in the post-Mugabe era. The divisions within ZANU-PF are not only likely to lead to further violent infighting, but are also likely to motivate an increasingly vulnerable party to ruthlessly quash external opposition. 

Yet, change in Zimbabwe is more likely to come from within ZANU-PF, with the inevitable death or incapacity of President Mugabe, rather than at the ballot box. In this regard, despite its challenges, ZANU-PF could still find victory in 2018. It is clear, however, that only one faction will survive a post-Mugabe era. While this eventuality leaves Mnangagwa best placed to take over, his pro-West and pro-business talk of change may amount to nothing more than political posturing in the succession battle. Zimbabwe’s future remains highly uncertain and the only thing observers can be reasonably sure of is that change is coming and it is likely to be violent.