Pro-Russian protests and rising anti-Russian sentiment in European cities will force leaders to balance public anger at Russia’s invasion with the need to protect civil liberties and prevent politically and ethnically motivated violence. Erin Drake explores the challenges facing European governments that could escalate societal tensions and drive unrest…
Heavy military losses and a failed bid to rapidly seize Kyiv show Russia’s war in Ukraine has clearly not gone to plan. But in invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has succeeded in bringing about a major change in the European security dynamic, albeit one that runs precisely counter to Russia’s objectives: a more attractive NATO that looks…
Amid rising energy costs and inflation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, Europe now faces the added challenge of the continent’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War 2. Richard Gardiner writes that these pressures, and the associated escalation in the cost of living, could drive sustained civil unrest in Europe in the coming year.
The Covid-19 pandemic and its knock-on effects have driven protests worldwide since 2020. Erin Drake writes that protests over climate change, anti-vaccine mandates and anti-austerity measures will remain disruptive, and in some cases gain ground through 2022.
Darren Davids writes that terror plots in Europe and the US will continue to manifest as traditional lone-wolf attacks in 2022. However, in weaker states in Africa and the Middle East, porous borders, security vacuums and a lack of governance will continue to enable the spread of Islamic extremism.
Recent threats of secession made by Milorad Dodik, the Serbian representative of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s three-person presidency, have stoked fears about the potential for renewed conflict in the region. Darren Davids writes that Dodik’s comments are simply aggressive posturing and are unlikely to prompt renewed violence.
Growing cocaine shipments to the Netherlands in recent years have been accompanied by an increased pervasiveness of violent criminal groups in the country. Markus Korhonen looks at the potential emergence of a Dutch narco-state.
Anti-vaccine protests have become a global phenomenon with varying driving factors ranging from low levels of trust in government to safety fears over the vaccines. Darren Davids writes that, governments and businesses will have to find creative solutions to get people to vaccinate given the cost and impact of renewed waves of infection.
The resurgence of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has coincided with a recent spate of attacks in Europe writes Darren Davids. While intelligence agencies have been able to foil large scale plots, the Islamic State will be increasingly relying on radicalised lone attackers.
A number of high-profile Islamist terror incidents rocked France in 2020. The response to the attacks demonstrated again the French government’s challenge of maintaining a secular state while seeking to avoid alienating groups with firmly held religious convictions. At the same time, responses internationally point to a growing divide between Europe…
In some countries, the Covid-19 pandemic has allowed criminal groups to diversify and expand their operations. This could threaten foreign businesses and staff in affected countries in the coming year, writes Erin Drake.
Many government agencies around the world are now better prepared to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic than they were early in 2020, but the virus is far from contained, and the strain on resources and supply chains is easily exacerbated when natural disaster strikes. Cvete Koneska explains how the confluence of the pandemic and the onset of natural disasters…