As Russia steps up offensive operations, Ukraine will have to endure a nervous wait for vital western military aid, including tanks, that will boost their own ability to stage a counteroffensive in the spring. Richard Gardiner discusses how both sides are under pressure to succeed and considers the trajectory of the conflict over the coming months.
There has been a significant drop in maritime crime related incidents reported globally in 2022. Yet, despite the drop in numbers, Richard Gardiner and Tash Glazer caution that the threat persists. With underreporting skewing statistics, maritime crime will remain a key security concern in 2023.
Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, Richard Gardiner and Saif Islam explore the subtle implications for Russia’s traditional sphere of influence.
As France’s security influence has waned in the Sahel, countries such as Russia, China and Turkey have been eager to take its place. Richard Gardiner discusses the changing geopolitical dynamics at play in the region and considers the impact this will have on Sahelian commercial environment.
Wrongful detention continues to be a threat for foreign nationals travelling to high-risk jurisdictions. Richard Gardiner discusses the politics behind the practice and assesses who faces the greatest threat of being wrongfully detained.
Richard Gardiner considers how Libyan stakeholders continue to use oil to further their own agendas in the midst of a deepening political crisis and argues that further disruptions to oil exports are inevitable unless long-term stability is achieved.
As the security crisis in the Sahel has escalated, so has the threat of kidnapping for ransom. With numerous threat actors active within the region, Richard Gardiner explores the drivers of this increase in abductions and discusses the threat to foreign nationals.
As organised crime spreads in Haiti’s ongoing security vacuum, foreign nationals and non-governmental organisations face increased threats of crime and kidnapping in 2022, writes Richard Gardiner.
Amid rising energy costs and inflation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, Europe now faces the added challenge of the continent’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War 2. Richard Gardiner writes that these pressures, and the associated escalation in the cost of living, could drive sustained civil unrest in Europe in the coming year.