With Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine now under way, pressure will build on Kyiv to demonstrate its forces can make strategic gains and prove to its Western allies that it can win the war. Richard Gardiner discusses the nature of the task at hand, and measures what success and failure would look like for Ukraine.…
Events following Imran Khan’s recent arrest illustrate the former prime minister’s popular appeal and ability to mobilise protest action. Combined with the deepening economic crisis and escalating political tensions ahead of the October elections, Pakistan faces a period of significant instability and rising levels of civil unrest, writes Richard Gardiner.…
Amid an increase in kidnappings in the Oromia Region driven by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Richard Gardiner analyses the modus operandi of the OLA and who is most at risk.
Two years after the 2021 military coup, Myanmar’s political and security crisis shows little sign of easing. Richard Gardiner discusses why neither the military nor resistance groups currently possess the requisite capabilities to gain the upper hand.
As Russia steps up offensive operations, Ukraine will have to endure a nervous wait for vital western military aid, including tanks, that will boost their own ability to stage a counteroffensive in the spring. Richard Gardiner discusses how both sides are under pressure to succeed and considers the trajectory of the conflict over the coming months.
There has been a significant drop in maritime crime related incidents reported globally in 2022. Yet, despite the drop in numbers, Richard Gardiner and Tash Glazer caution that the threat persists. With underreporting skewing statistics, maritime crime will remain a key security concern in 2023.
Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, Richard Gardiner and Saif Islam explore the subtle implications for Russia’s traditional sphere of influence.
As France’s security influence has waned in the Sahel, countries such as Russia, China and Turkey have been eager to take its place. Richard Gardiner discusses the changing geopolitical dynamics at play in the region and considers the impact this will have on Sahelian commercial environment.
Wrongful detention continues to be a threat for foreign nationals travelling to high-risk jurisdictions. Richard Gardiner discusses the politics behind the practice and assesses who faces the greatest threat of being wrongfully detained.
Richard Gardiner considers how Libyan stakeholders continue to use oil to further their own agendas in the midst of a deepening political crisis and argues that further disruptions to oil exports are inevitable unless long-term stability is achieved.
As the security crisis in the Sahel has escalated, so has the threat of kidnapping for ransom. With numerous threat actors active within the region, Richard Gardiner explores the drivers of this increase in abductions and discusses the threat to foreign nationals.
As organised crime spreads in Haiti’s ongoing security vacuum, foreign nationals and non-governmental organisations face increased threats of crime and kidnapping in 2022, writes Richard Gardiner.