On 12 March, 20 suspected Somali pirates hijacked the Bangladeshi-flagged ship MV Abdullah approximately 600 nautical miles off the Somali coast and set sail for the mainland. The hijacking is one of at least 15 reported piracy incidents offshore Somalia since November 2023, and has evoked memories of the frequent hijackings off Somali shores over a decade ago. With Houthi missile strikes on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab El Mandab Strait already causing significant shipping disruptions in the region, these recent attacks present yet another concern for shipping companies.

Onshore vulnerabilities persist

Despite domestic and international efforts to enhance security along the Somali coast in the past decade, authorities still struggle to maintain control over these waters. According to the European Union’s Operation ATALANTA – an EU-led naval operation - multiple pirate camps still exist along the Puntland Coast, primarily between Xaafun and Garacad, covering the area north of Eyl. Estimates suggest that at least four pirate gangs operate in the area. These groups remain well-equipped with automatic weapons and grenade launchers, and still utilise 'motherships' to extend their reach into the shipping lanes along the Horn of Africa, with recent hijackings of merchant vessels occurring hundreds of nautical miles off the coast.

Houthi strikes play their part

It is no coincidence that the recent piracy incidents have corresponded with the onset of Houthi missile strikes on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab El Mandab Strait. Although there are no direct ties between Somali pirate groups and Houthi militants, the ongoing Houthi strikes have had a significant impact on the offshore dynamics off the Somali coast. This is largely the result of US and UK naval vessels being redeployed to the Red Sea region to counter the Houthi threat and protect commercial vessels navigating through the area. The redeployment has created a security vacuum off the Somali coast, which pirates groups have sought to exploit. While the Houthi strikes have prompted many commercial vessels to opt for alternative routes around Southern Africa instead of using the Suez Canal, for those still utilising the canal, frequent delays in obtaining authorisation have become commonplace, with vessels slowing down before they enter the Red Sea. Consequently, commercial vessels are now operating with diminished protection and traveling at reduced speeds when transiting near Somali waters, rendering them more vulnerable to pirate attacks.

The pirates meet their match

While the recent increase in reported piracy cases off the Somali coast is concerning, there have been some improvements to the offshore security landscape compared to the peak of Somali piracy in 2011. Naval forces have made substantial technological advancements in detecting and responding to piracy incidents, while many commercial shipping companies have implemented enhanced security protocols, such as deploying armed guards and anti-boarding measures on their vessels. These measures have reduced the opportunities for pirates to carry out successful attacks against well-prepared and fortified vessels. And, the recent attacks have now prompted the Indian navy to significantly increase its footprint off the Somali coast, with 12 warships now active in the region, marking its largest-ever naval deployment. This expanded presence is likely to partially compensate for the reduction in naval assets off the Somali coast amid the ongoing security situation in the Red Sea and serve to further limit the potential for successful pirate attacks.

Outlook

Amid ongoing security challenges along the Somali coast, the remaining operational pirate groups will persist in their efforts to exploit any vulnerabilities caused by the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. Nevertheless, these endeavours are likely to remain opportunistic, primarily focusing on commercial vessels lacking sufficient security measures, navigating the area at reduced speeds, and finding themselves exposed or beyond the protective range of naval vessels. While concerns about further incidents are justified, the prospect of a complete resurgence of Somali piracy remains highly improbable at this time.