The reduced press freedom in several Sub-Saharan Africa countries, as outlined in the 2023 World Press Freedom Rankings, highlights the growing dangers for journalists operating in countries such as Mali, Senegal and Ethiopia, among others. Richard Gardiner investigates the drivers of the growing threats to journalist safety and discusses some of the…
Interpol’s inaugural Global Crime Trend Report released in October 2022 underscores the growing threat that criminal activity, including organised crime and illicit trafficking, presents across the globe. This upward trend in criminality has continued in the first half of 2023. Cameron Cullen and Richard Gardiner discuss some of the notable crime developments…
With Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine now under way, pressure will build on Kyiv to demonstrate its forces can make strategic gains and prove to its Western allies that it can win the war. Richard Gardiner discusses the nature of the task at hand, and measures what success and failure would look like for Ukraine.…
Events following Imran Khan’s recent arrest illustrate the former prime minister’s popular appeal and ability to mobilise protest action. Combined with the deepening economic crisis and escalating political tensions ahead of the October elections, Pakistan faces a period of significant instability and rising levels of civil unrest, writes Richard Gardiner.…
Amid an increase in kidnappings in the Oromia Region driven by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Richard Gardiner analyses the modus operandi of the OLA and who is most at risk.
Two years after the 2021 military coup, Myanmar’s political and security crisis shows little sign of easing. Richard Gardiner discusses why neither the military nor resistance groups currently possess the requisite capabilities to gain the upper hand.
As Russia steps up offensive operations, Ukraine will have to endure a nervous wait for vital western military aid, including tanks, that will boost their own ability to stage a counteroffensive in the spring. Richard Gardiner discusses how both sides are under pressure to succeed and considers the trajectory of the conflict over the coming months.
There has been a significant drop in maritime crime related incidents reported globally in 2022. Yet, despite the drop in numbers, Richard Gardiner and Tash Glazer caution that the threat persists. With underreporting skewing statistics, maritime crime will remain a key security concern in 2023.
Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, Richard Gardiner and Saif Islam explore the subtle implications for Russia’s traditional sphere of influence.
As France’s security influence has waned in the Sahel, countries such as Russia, China and Turkey have been eager to take its place. Richard Gardiner discusses the changing geopolitical dynamics at play in the region and considers the impact this will have on Sahelian commercial environment.
Wrongful detention continues to be a threat for foreign nationals travelling to high-risk jurisdictions. Richard Gardiner discusses the politics behind the practice and assesses who faces the greatest threat of being wrongfully detained.
Richard Gardiner considers how Libyan stakeholders continue to use oil to further their own agendas in the midst of a deepening political crisis and argues that further disruptions to oil exports are inevitable unless long-term stability is achieved.