What's in a letter: Can a dispute over license plates ignite war in the Balkans?

The fragile and hard-won peace in Balkans showed signs of fracturing this July as Serbia and Kosovo traded threats of civil unrest and military escalation, all because of … number plates. Until now, authorities have allowed Kosovan Serbs to use the relatively neutral ‘KS’ for ‘Kosovo’ on vehicle number plates issued by the United Nations. From 1 September, however, Kosovo has changed the rules; Pristina will now issue the plates, and the regional classification will change to ‘RKS’ for ‘Republic of Kosovo’, with a distinct implication of Kosovan independence and statehood. Moreover, Serbs entering Kosovo with Serbian identification documents will have to be issued with temporary Kosovan documents for the duration of their stay. While Kosovo argues that these measures simply match similar corresponding regulations in Serbia for Kosovan visitors, Serbia believes otherwise, having never recognised Kosovan independence in the first place. Just as Kosovo works to strengthen their sovereignty in the north, Serbia aims to undermine and destabilise it by, for example, campaigning for countries to ‘derecognise’ Kosovan independence.

Serbs living in northern Kosovo responded to the new regulations by holding protests, blocking roads with heavy trucks, and even firing live shots at police in the border towns of Brnjak and Jarinjë, forcing police to close the border crossings temporarily. While no one was injured during the protests, they have sparked fears of renewed violence in Kosovo and heightened regional tensions in an already simmering Europe.

REGIONAL IMPACT

The new regulations and most recent spate of unrest illustrates how deep-seated tensions continue to rumble just beneath the surface, threatening the delicate peace in the Balkan region. Meanwhile, as war grinds on in Ukraine, tensions between NATO and Russia remain high. But despite NATO members, and other Western countries, continuing to provide support for Ukraine and ramping up military preparedness in the region, NATO has studiously steered away from direct military confrontation with Russia. Nevertheless, the prospect of a simmering conflict in the Balkans has the potential to escalate tensions between Russia and the West.

WAR IN THE BALKANS

Ultimately, the current civil unrest and ethnic tensions in northern Kosovo are home-grown, have deep roots dating back to the late 1990s, and show no signs of abating. Meanwhile, Russia’s influence in the Balkans is growing, just as the EU’s influence appears to diminish, with stalled accession talks that have been underway since the mid-2000s with no clear timeline. At present, both Kosovo and Serbia appear willing to de-escalate tensions, as they did successfully during talks mediated by the EU and the US on 27 August. However, the recent spate of protests, and the exchange of violent rhetoric between Kosovo and Serbia, serves as a reminder of the fragility of peace in the Balkans. Looking forward, it is likely that bureaucratic manoeuvres by Kosovo seeking to establish their sovereignty will continue to spark unrest, leaving Balkan stability in the balance.