US Foreign Policy Under Trump
Middle East & North Africa
In 2019, US foreign policy in the MENA region is expected to be centered around maintaining pressure on Iran through various sanctions; continuing counter-terrorism operations and support in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya; and revealing its much-anticipated peace plan for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some of these objectives are likely to face significant challenges.
For example, the US’s recent decision to withdraw its 2,000 troops from Syria has raised fears of a potential resurgence of Islamic State. If the US continues to increase pressure on Iran, powerful Iran-backed Shi’a militias could target US interests in Iraq. The Israeli-Palestinian peace plan, which is expected to be staunchly pro-Israel, is likely to be opposed by the Palestinian Authority and Arab states. One of the most uncertain facets of US foreign policy in MENA in 2019 is likely to be the evolution of its 75-year old alliance with Saudi Arabia. The killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the country’s Istanbul consulate in October 2018 has resulted in bipartisan condemnation and actions, including the US Senate approving a resolution to end US military support for Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen. In contrast, President Trump’s administration has refrained from overt criticism of Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi case, citing the need for US support in Yemen in order not to embolden Iran, as well as the importance of uninterrupted Saudi oil supply, lucrative US-Saudi defence deals, and their security partnership.
Asia Pacific
Bilateral relations between the US and China deteriorated in 2018, with issues around security and trade being particularly contentious. Regarding the former, China’s expanding global influence, driven by infrastructure development drives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has led the US to identify it as a “strategic competitor.” Along with this announcement, the US has increased maritime operations in politically sensitive areas, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Long-standing tensions related to trade have also undermined bilateral relations. China and the US are currently engaged in a trade dispute, with both countries imposing punitive tariffs on imports from the other. For example, in December 2018, US tariffs on Chinese imports totalled over USD 250 billion, while Chinese tariffs on US goods stood at USD 110 billion. US concerns regarding alleged theft of intellectual property is one of these key sources of tension. Another is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s involvement in the Chinese economy, which the US says causes market distortions.
China’s expanding global influence, driven by infrastructure development drives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, has led the US to identify it as a strategic competitor.
The arrest of a prominent Chinese telecoms executive in Canada on 1 December 2018 at the request of the US government has further exacerbated trade tensions. In an apparent response, two Canadians, one a former diplomat and the other a China-based businessman, were detained in separate incidents by Chinese authorities on 10 and 12 December respectively. These strained relations are likely to persist in 2019, as both the US and China have come to see each other as Cold War-like adversaries with opposing values and political systems.
Latin America
US relations with Latin America since the start of the Donald Trump presidency have been tense, particularly regarding trade and immigration issues. On the latter, the Trump administration has looked to restrict both legal and illegal immigration from Latin America through a range of policy shifts including the construction of a border wall, a change in immigration processes and even the ending of birthright citizenship. However, the loss of the Lower House of Congress in the November 2018 midterm elections to a slim Democratic Party majority effectively deadlocks many of the institutional changes President Trump looked to enact.
Discontent with such programmes has also resulted in episodes of civil unrest inside the US and throughout Latin America. Additionally, the ‘migrant caravan’ phenomenon, in which thousands of mostly Central American families walked northwards to the US border, culminated with a border incident on November 25. US security forces fired tear gas on Mexican territory from San Diego at approximately 500 migrants who stormed Mexican police blockades in an attempt to cross over into the US. A strained relationship with Latin America looks set to persist into 2019.
Discontent with Trump's counter-immigration initiatives have resulted in episodes of civil unrest inside the US and throughout Latin America.
Sub-Saharan Africa
In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump eased combat rules in Somalia intended to protect civilians, making the use of drone strikes easier. The decision allowed the US military in Somalia to work with more flexibility and fewer restrictions – evident in the escalation of drone strikes since the change in policy. Under former President Barack Obama, 16 drone strikes were launched in Somalia in 2016, compared to at least 40 strikes in 2018 under Trump. The increased frequency of drone strikes will likely force militant groups in the region to change their operational tactics in response. Trump’s rule change for Somalia is not isolated, and likely reflects a wider strategy by the Trump administration in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to increase the efficiency of US resources in the region. The US intends to reduce the number of US counterterrorism operatives in SSA by approximately 25 percent over the next three years.