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Trump Unchecked?

When in office, US President-elect Donald Trump will have to reconcile a number of competing forces from his constituents to Congress, the media and civil society. Whilst the same can be said of most presidents, the unique character of Donald Trump will mean a particularly complex path, write Carilee Osborne and Lara Sierra-Rubia
Trump
Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has exposed and exacerbated the politically fractured nature of the US laying bare multiple divisions that in some ways mirror, and in other ways blur, race, class and ideological lines. Over the last week, we have seen evidence of panic among sections of the population, with online analytics showing a 100 percent spike in US internet searches for “the end of the world” and “how to emigrate to Canada” after the result became clear on 9 November.

Much of this anxiety is driven by the unconventional nature of Trump’s candidacy and the belief that his presidency is likely to be equally unorthodox. The unprecedented nature of his campaign tactics, lack of government experience and persona have all been well documented. However, his ideological and policy positions do not fit into a neat box either; subsequently, much of this post-election uncertainty pertains to Trump’s radical policy proposals. These include:

Trade: The scrapping of major trade deals, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), as well as imposing a 45 percent and 35 percent tariff on Chinese and Mexican imports respectively.

Immigration: Build a US-Mexico border wall and deport approximately 11 million undocumented workers.

Financial reform: Remove the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a piece of legislation created to decrease risks to the US financial system in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Healthcare: Repeal the Affordable Care Act (known popularly as Obamacare) and replace it with another unspecified form of Medicare.

Energy: Cut alternative energy subsidies, environmental regulations and withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord.

Fiscal policy: A sharp reduction in income taxes on large corporations. This, in conjunction with major infrastructure projects and increased military spending, is likely to increase the budget deficit.

These policies do not hang well together, both in terms of the traditional ideological divide between Democrats and Republican as well as in terms of internal coherence. Indeed, in many ways, Trump appears more as an independent candidate despite having run on the Republican ticket. This speaks to the fact that for most of his life he was not a registered Republican and had previously given campaign donations to Democratic candidates, including the Clintons.

Despite this, when President, Trump will have to operate within a political system that is in many ways reliant on party conventions and alliances. In this sense, the Trump presidency will involve maintaining a balance between the anti-establishment views that got him elected, and the party relationships that are required to govern successfully. The latter is perhaps why Trump has already made some inroads into repairing his relationship with Republican Party figures by adopting what appears to be a more pragmatic approach. 
Despite this, when President, Trump will have to operate within a political system that is in many ways reliant on party conventions and alliances. In this sense, the Trump presidency will involve maintaining a balance between the anti-establishment views that got him elected, and the party relationships that are required to govern successfully.

To begin with, Trump has moderated his stance on a number of campaign pledges. Since winning the election, he has told the media that he intends to reform, rather than repeal, Obamacare; has indicated that tariffs against China will be lower than he initially claimed; and has stated that his government will limit deportations to illegal immigrants with criminal records. The latter is far more restrained than his initial pledge to remove all of the estimated 11 million undocumented workers in the US.

Given his dearth of experience in governing, Trump will also have to lean on those around him for assistance in policy and decision-making. His choice of advisors largely represents traditional conservative politicians, many of whom have extensive experience in government.

While Trump’s appointment of Steve Bannon as Chief Strategist has sparked ire from Democrats over his work promoting far-right content on his Breitbart website, Trump’s other picks for key positions are long-standing Republican members that espouse traditional conservatism. For example, Trump’s Chief of Staff, Reince Priebus – a moderate Republican who has a good relationship with House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – will work towards driving a Republican agenda. Hires like these point to an acceptance that he will need to toe a fine line between the pro and anti-establishment positions.

Additionally, both houses of Congress have mechanisms in place which can serve to hold the president to account. Although Trump will have significant power, given the backing of a Republican-controlled House of Representatives (often shortened to The House or House) and Senate, this can also serve to constrain some of his more radical policies. In this sense, it is possible that he will be pushed further to the centre given that key party leaders such as Ryan and others have more mainstream conservative views.

The US political system is also fundamentally constituent-based, where elected officials are sometimes incentivised to vote against their own party if it is in the best interests of the district that voted for them. On issues such as trade, Trump's protectionist stance is at odds with the generally pro-free trade ideals that are dominant within the GOP. In this sense, and on other issues, Trump may face opposition from within his own party, as well as from Democrats.

On many occasions, members of the House or Senate have voted against their own party. With respect to Trump, the Senate could be a particular concern. Republicans control the upper house but with a slim margin. In that chamber, seven of the top 10 Republicans who have most commonly voted against the party line, have previously stated that they would not vote for Trump. Among this list, Lindsey Graham and Susan Collins are especially important; both are considered ‘moderate’ Republicans and have frequently voted across party lines. Collins sits on the Senate Committee on Aging which deals with Medicare and social security. She has previously voted in favour of abortion rights, supports same-sex marriage, environmental protection measures and has increasingly tried to negotiate centrist positions within the Republican Party.

Similarly, Lindsay Graham has indicated a willingness to engage in bipartisan action supporting immigration reform and measures to reduce global warming. Given Trump’s climate change denialism, anti-abortion positions and hard-line stance on immigration, these senators may be crucial allies to Democrats in the Senate. In addition, Graham holds interventionist foreign policy positions with a strong focus on defence and support for the military. This could also prove important as Trump makes decisions regarding wars in Syria and elsewhere.

Although the Senate has been fractured over the previous two terms, there is hope that the replacement of Harry Reid with Charles Schumer as Senate Minority Leader will serve to improve inter-party relations. Beyond the role that this is supposed to play in revitalising the Democrats after a tough election, the move is expected to encourage further bipartisan cooperation in the Senate given that Reid and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have had a poor working relationship. Senate Democrats have also indicated their willingness to work with Trump on issues such as infrastructure spending and child tax credits, where he stands at odds with his own party; this is evidently part of a strategy to win back white working-class votes in the 2018 Senate and House elections.

In addition to these political constraints, it is likely that Trump will be limited by significant vigilance from media and civil society groups. In the immediate aftermath of the election, activists and civil society groups focused on the importance of increased political engagement. Clear evidence of this lies in the fact that Planned Parenthood, a reproductive rights organisation that Vice-President-elect Mike Pence has vowed to defund, has received 160,000 donations since the election on 8 November. Similarly, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has received 120,000 donations in the same period.

There is little doubt that the US is facing an unconventional presidency; Trump’s transition team has been struggling over the last week to entice some Republicans onto the Trump team amid concerns over reputational risk. It is clear that they were ill-prepared for his win; reports of world leaders struggling to reach the President-elect and federal agencies being unable to handover tasks are indicative of this. It is unlikely that his job will get any easier once he takes office, given the careful balancing act required. Additionally, even if he does manage to balance his position, the high policy expectations of his electoral base will be difficult to fulfil.

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