Trade Winds: Drug Trafficking and Violencein the Caribbean

Recent Caribbean crime statistics are likely to leave tourists with a sense of trepidation over travelling to the region. In June 2016, significant increases in annual homicides were reported by several Caribbean islands. In Jamaica, authorities stated that the homicide rate stood at approximately 44 per 100,000 in 2015, reflecting a 20 percent increase in the number of homicides in 2014, which was the highest level in five years. The country’s murder rate now stands at over 50 per 100,000 inhabitants. In Trinidad and Tobago, the homicide rate stood at 30 per 100,000 in 2015, up from 28 per 100,000 in 2014. Similarly, the US Virgin Islands and Saint Kitts and Nevis recorded 39 and 38 murders per 100,000 residents respectively in 2015. These numbers contrast starkly with the US where the homicide rate stands at roughly five per 100,000. 

This increase in crime has coincided with a significant growth in narcotics trafficking in the region. Documented seizures of cocaine en route from producing areas to the US via the Caribbean - including Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and other Eastern Caribbean countries - have increased from an average of 60 tons to about 100 tons per year since 2011. Drug trafficking is a highly fluid criminal enterprise which generally follows the path of least resistance, particularly where security is more lax. As such, Colombian narcotics producers have reportedly begun to redirect their drug transhipments through the Caribbean to avoid cartel-related violence, increased law enforcement and rising pressure against drug cartels in Mexico. Citing the so-called “toothpaste effect”, Caribbean authorities have suggested that part of the rise in violence is an indicator that the drug war is being squeezed out of Mexico and into the Caribbean. As major organisations seek areas where security enforcement and controls are weaker, crime rates therefore seem to have risen as a result of growing competition for trafficking routes between rival criminal groups.

However, current data collection methods present challenges to proving that there is a relationship between increasing drug trafficking and rising violent crime rates in the region. Across the Caribbean, there are differing definitions of crime and methods in which crime is recorded. Nevertheless, several law enforcement agencies, in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and Trinidad and Tobago, have claimed that drug trafficking has resulted in increased violent crimes in recent years. 

Despite this shift, narcotics producing activities are unlikely to move to the region in the medium term. However, as governments in South and Central America increase counter-narcotics programmes and anti-trafficking measures at their borders, Caribbean islands will continue to be perceived as a more convenient transit point for drugs. In this regard, most islands have limited security force capacity and poor monitoring of water and airspace, making clandestine trafficking a growing threat in the region.