The ‘Punisher'Tackles Terrorism

On 26 August, the recently elected Filipino President, Rodrigo Duterte, nicknamed ‘the Punisher’, launched a military operation against the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), a small but violent Islamist militant group based in the southern Philippines. After the ASG beheaded an 18-year-old Filipino boy on 24 August, Duterte vowed to “destroy” the group and deployed 9,000 troops to the Sulu Archipelago, the group’s stronghold. Since the offensive was launched, 59 ASG members have been killed in operations on the Sulu and Basilan Islands, with the military incurring 18 deaths and 27 injuries. While the military has urged ASG members to surrender, there have been no reports of any of the group’s members yielding to government forces. On the contrary, the ASG has continued to conduct attacks and kidnappings in the region. However, the Punisher is showing no signs of backing down, and has threatened to eat ASG militants alive. This confrontational approach risks fuelling ASG retaliation, which could prompt an escalation of terror attacks and kidnappings by the group.

Founded in 1991, the ASG’s primary goal is to establish an Islamic state in the southern Philippines. With an estimated 400 to 500 members, the group’s network of cells operate across the south of the country, including Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago. The ASG has a history of staging significant terror attacks in the Philippines, most notably in 2004 when a bomb attack on a ferry in Manila bay resulted in the death of 116 people. The group subsequently gained international notoriety over the years for its ability to carry out well-orchestrated kidnappings of both Filipinos and foreign nationals, aimed at extracting ransom payments. Following a counter-terrorism operation initiated against the ASG in 2006, the intensity of the group’s attacks decreased as the group turned to organised crime and kidnapping to sustain its survival.

In its formative years, the ASG was associated with Al Qaeda, and is known to maintain strong links with Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), an Indonesia-based Islamist militant group. However, in recent years, the group has again made international headlines following pledges of allegiance to Islamic State (IS). In September 2014 and again in January 2015, videos surfaced of the group’s leader, Isnilon Hapilon, declaring allegiance to the Iraq and Syria-based group. In April 2016, Hapilon was subsequently appointed by the IS leadership as emir of the militant group in the Philippines. This backdrop of allegiance to IS has stoked fears of escalating ASG activity.

Since July 2015, the ASG has reportedly kidnapped 38 foreigners and numerous locals. The group’s tactics have also become more aggressive, which may be due to it emulating IS’s violent zealotry. Since May 2016, three hostages, including two Canadian nationals, have been brutally beheaded, with one victim’s head discarded in a plastic bag on a street in Jolo, a town on Sulu Island, in June 2016. Furthermore, since March 2016, the ASG has increased its maritime kidnappings in the Sulu and Celebes Seas, targeting Malaysian, Indonesian and Filipino crews. While an increase in maritime kidnappings is likely to be influenced, in part, by the group’s attempt to seek credibility from IS, these attacks are mainly motivated by financial pressures. Due to elevated security at coastal resorts and seaside towns – typical ASG kidnapping sites – the group has resorted to targeting crews of slow-moving vessels for kidnap for ransom.

The ASG has also demonstrated that it still has the capabilities to carry out high-impact terrorist attacks, more typical of the group’s tactics of a decade ago. After the ASG warned the government it would retaliate against intensified military operations, on 2 September 2016, an explosion at a night market in President Duterte’s home town, Davao City, killed 15 and injured 70 others. The blast occurred near a high-end hotel popular with tourists and businesspeople. The group initially claimed responsibility for the incident but subsequently denied its involvement two days later, alleging that an allied Islamist militant group was responsible. Despite this development, the government strongly suspects the ASG’s involvement in the incident, interpreting it as an act of retaliation against the ongoing military offensive.

Most recently, the kidnapping of three Malaysian crew members on 12 September indicates that the ASG has managed to maintain its operations, despite the military offensive. However, the decision to release six hostages on 17 September, including a Norwegian, three Indonesians, and two Filipinos, has led observers to speculate that the ASG may be seeking reprieve from Duterte’s offensive. Nevertheless, the ransom payment of USD 638,000 for Kjartan Sekkingstad, the Norwegian national, is likely to be used by the ASG to stock up on weapons and buy the support of local villagers, making it more difficult for Duterte to eliminate the group in the short term.