The changing nature of terrorism in Tanzania

On 19 May, three people were killed in a suspected terrorist attack in Mwanza, northwest Tanzania. According to local reports, 15 unidentified assailants, armed with knives and machetes, stormed the Masjid Rahmani mosque in an apparent attack linked to a number of recent arrests in the area. However, the attack followed the release of a video by a self-proclaimed Tanzanian affiliate of the Islamic State (IS) militant group, calling itself Ahl Al Kahf, or ‘People of the Cave’. Although authorities have yet to establish a direct link between the two incidents, these events have served to increase public concern over the threat of terrorism in Tanzania. While low-level terrorist-style attacks are not unprecedented in Tanzania, previous incidents were indicative of the potential for a domestic network supportive of Al Shabaab, a group which continues to serve as the main driver of terrorism threats in the region. However, the latest attacks have been linked to a new actor for East Africa in the form of IS, increasing concern over a new dimension to the threat. 

For Tanzania, the country has previously remained geographically removed from the Somali conflict and the ensuing transnational terror threat, which has largely focused on neighbouring Kenya. There, the country has continued to contribute to counterinsurgency operations against Al Shabaab in Somalia as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). This, coupled with supportive domestic networks in Kenya comprising both Kenyan nationals and native Somalis, has significantly contributed to Al Shabaab’s intent and ability to target Kenyan interests. While these factors have been largely absent in Tanzania, isolated attacks have occasionally taken place within its territory. 

Firstly, since 2012, the Ansar Muslim Youth Centre (AMYC) in Tanga, led by controversial Sheikh Salim Abdulrahim, has been understood to have strong ties with both Al Shabaab and the militant group’s Kenyan affiliate, Al Hijra. In addition, in late 2013, several alleged training camps run by Al Shabaab were discovered in the north of the country. Furthermore, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), in January 2015 alone, there were at least 17 terrorist incidents recorded in Tanzania, including attacks on police stations in Morogoro and Shinyanga. Notably, however, these incidents, which marked one of the largest concentration of low-impact attacks in the country, were not claimed by Al Shabaab. In this regard, the 19 May attack offers little evidence a renewed terror campaign or increased capabilities among militants operating in Tanzania in isolation. The incident should not been seen as indicative of a growing threat in Tanzania. Yet, the emergence of Ahl Al Kahf offers a distinct development in the dynamics of the terrorism threat in Tanzania as well as in wider East Africa. This comes despite Ahl Al Kahf likely comprising an unsophisticated grouping of poorly armed individuals which are unlikely to have secured the backing of IS.

Specifically, the release of the Ahl Al Kahf video, which has yet to be fully authenticated, follows the arrest of several other IS-inspired individuals in the region. This includes the 29 April arrest of three individuals connected to a foiled terrorist attack involving a biological substance in Kitale, Kenya, by individuals claiming to be aligned to IS. Two of the individuals detained had been operating in neighbouring Uganda, demonstrating the potential for cross-border coordination, albeit at a likely unsophisticated level. Furthermore, these events follow the earlier April emergence of Jahba East Africa, a former Al Shabaab faction which has since pledged allegiance to IS. These developments indicate a growing resonance with IS in the East Africa region, a recognition IS will be keen to capitalise on in the longer term. The Iraq and Syria based group has made several calls for ‘brothers in East Africa’ to join its fight. For Tanzania, however, in the immediate term there is little evidence of an entrenched militancy presence in the country. Rather, these latest incidents highlight the potential for further similar isolated attacks by individuals inspired by groups further afield yet concerns with more local grievances.