Thailand: Death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej

On 13 October, Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the longest-reigning monarch in history, died at age 88. The King was viewed as a stabilising force in Thailand, serving as a source of authority for the military, opposing political factions, and business elites. His death follows the passing of the August 2016 referendum on the military-drafted constitution, which gives the military extensive political powers and has institutionalised its rule. 

The death of the King has resulted in a degree of political uncertainty over the relationship between the monarchy and the military junta, which has been in power since May 2014. The King was known to have supported the military-led government, under General Prayut Chan-o-cha, now the Prime Minister of Thailand. However, the King’s successor and son, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, is reported to have a tenuous relationship with the military and its supporters. Notably, his impending appointment is viewed as a potential threat to the military who has used the monarchy to preserve its wealth and political interests. Such concerns have been exacerbated by the Crown Prince’s reported relationship with the former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, overthrown in a military coup in September 2006. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was also ousted in a military coup in May 2014. Despite living in self-imposed exile, Thaksin is reportedly looking to return to local politics. This return, which may be granted via amnesty from the Crown Prince, poses a potential threat to political stability and the relationship between the monarchy and the military junta ahead of the November 2017 elections. 

However, the Crown Prince has not previously demonstrated an interest in local politics but is rather known for enjoying a lavish lifestyle in Europe. As such, he does not enjoy as much support and widespread respect as his father, which will limit his ability to entrench his rule. Moreover, as the Crown Prince will only assume the throne within the next year, with Prem Tinsulanonda, Head of the Privy Council, assuming a temporary role in the interim, the Crown Prince’s appointment is unlikely to amount to any significant political changes over the next 12 months. The new constitution, widely supported in a public referendum in August 2016, further grants the military the ability to centralise power and veto the appointment of opposing political figures in the next elections, thereby ensuring the military’s role in politics in the short to medium term.

Following the King’s death, Prime Minister Chan-o-cha declared a mourning period of one year. While anti-government groups are unlikely to stage attacks during this period, as they too will enter mourning, the country’s ethnic-Malay insurgents in the southernmost states, namely Narathiwat, Pattani, Yala, and Songkhla, pose a potential threat. There is a low likelihood that these groups will seek to stage attacks during the coming funeral, memorial, and succession events, which are likely to be largely concentrated in Bangkok over the next year. A stalemate in negotiations between the military-led government and some separatist groups is likely to be a driver for attacks. Already, on 10 October, authorities received intelligence reports that an unknown armed group was plotting to stage car bomb attacks in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region between 25 and 30 October. While no group has claimed the threats, they are likely to have been issued by southern insurgents, as they have made use of car bombs in previous attacks, and were responsible for a recent series of small bomb attacks across the country in August 2016. Authorities are expected to intensify security across Bangkok and surrounding areas in the short to medium term.

Thailand is unlikely to face major economic disruptions following the death of the King. Although the country’s stock market and currency initially reacted negatively to the announcement, stability has since been restored. Moreover, Thailand has been quick to return to business following the funeral procession on 14 October and many business entities and tourist sites have remained open. Any prolonged economic consequences of the King’s death are not expected to last beyond the initial 100 days of the year-long mourning period.