Target of opportunity:Chinese Investment in Pakistan and the Kidnapping Threat

With the number of Chinese infrastructural development projects in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative set to grow over 2016, both Chinese and Pakistani commentators have highlighted the numerous security challenges of operating in the country. Central amongst these is the high risk of kidnapping posed to foreign nationals. While lower numbers of foreign nationals in Pakistan in recent years have meant that the number of reported kidnapping cases involving foreigners has dropped, the anticipated influx of Chinese nationals attached to the initiation of CPEC projects is likely to present new opportunities for kidnapping groups. 

Kidnapping dynamics in Pakistan are complex, involving a wide range of actors and motivations. Prominent criminal gangs are known to be closely connected to Islamist militant groups, such as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), colluding during kidnapping operations. For instance, victims have previously been reported as abducted in a larger urban centre, such as Islamabad, and are subsequently sold to militants and transported to the north-western Federally Administered Tribal Region (FATA), where the TTP has a long-term presence. 

While the majority of kidnapping victims in Pakistan are locals, kidnapping actors in Pakistan have significant political and financial motivations to target Chinese nationals. For example, the TTP has reportedly previously targeted Chinese nationals in response to Chinese military operations against Islamist militants in Xinjiang. Additionally, while a number of Western governments have policies against paying ransoms for the return of their citizens, there is uncertainty over whether this is the case with China, as the Chinese government reportedly has not issued a firm statement on whether it pays ransoms. On 23 August 2015, a Chinese tourist who had been kidnapped by the TTP in 2014 was reportedly recovered safely by security forces, although the details of his release were not disclosed. The TTP typically holds on to hostages for much longer time periods, leading to widespread speculation that either Chinese or Pakistani officials gave in to the group’s demands. Although this is the only such recorded incident, the uncertainty surrounding its outcome may lead other kidnapping groups in Pakistan to believe that they can extract ransoms by kidnapping Chinese workers. 

The Pakistan security forces have reportedly dedicated significant assets to the protection of personnel and property at CPEC projects. However, kidnapping groups often demonstrate a high degree of capability and organisation, including the use of disparate ‘safe houses’ to evade detection and hold hostages. As such, security forces may face a challenge to address the threat posed to Chinese nationals in the coming years.