Articles
Stoking The Fire: China's Response to the UN-backed Ruling on the South China Sea
A recent international tribunal ruled in favour of the Philippines in its dispute with China over maritime entitlements in the South China Sea. Whilst a victory for the Philippines, China remains defiant and continues to assert its claims in the region. Although tensions have been heightened following the ruling, the security situation in the region is unlikely to escalate, writes Mandira Bagwandeen.
On 12 July, a United Nations (UN)-backed tribunal unequivocally discredited China’s claims to the South China Sea. After heightened naval aggression between China and the Philippines in April-June 2012, Manila resorted to legal action and initiated arbitration proceedings in 2013 to challenge China’s claims in the region. Unlike other South China Sea claimants, the Philippines is the only country to have taken legal action against China to date. It primarily questioned the validity of China’s historical claim to maritime entitlements in the South China Sea. Beijing has boycotted the court, asserting that it has no jurisdiction to settle the dispute. It also perceived the tribunal to be biased as it was headed by Shunji Yani, a Japanese national and a former vice minister of Japan’s foreign affairs department. Japan has its own maritime dispute with China and may have a degree of self-interest in the ruling. Nevertheless, the tribunal clearly debunked Beijing’s claimed historic entitlement, affirming that it has no legal claim to territory and resources in the region. In addition, it also stated that China’s construction of artificial islands in the region violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights.
Aware that the ruling embarrassed China on the international stage, the Philippines has avoided gloating; instead, it has been sober and reserved. On the other hand, China issued abrasive statements refusing to recognise the ruling and vowed to take all necessary measures to protect its territorial sovereignty and maritime interests in the region. In further defiance of the verdict, China landed commercial jets in the region, announced the construction of a fifth lighthouse on contested reefs, and reportedly blocked a Filipino boat from approaching the contested Scarborough Shoal. Most recently, on 18 July, it cordoned off part of the South China Sea to hold maritime drills off the east coast of Hainan, China’s southern island province. Despite this belligerent response, China claims that it is willing to engage in bilateral negotiations with the Philippines and other countries with competing claims. However, it will only do so on its own terms; Beijing has refused to engage in any negotiations based on the ruling.
China’s combination of aggressive rhetoric with vague gestures towards negotiation suggests that while it will not comply with the ruling, it is wary of intensifying a dispute that has driven many ASEAN countries to increase their military capabilities and form closer defence ties with the US. With USD 5.3 trillion of trade passing through the South China Sea annually, Beijing and its South-east Asian neighbours are likely to avoid resorting to arms. In the short term, China will continue with its posturing as it comes to terms with the ruling and seeks to reassert control over the region. However, with the international community watching closely, China is likely to tread carefully. In the medium- to long-term, tensions will remain; exchanges of heated rhetoric are likely as well as low-impact sea-based skirmishes between China and the other claimants, especially its main challengers, the Philippines and Vietnam.