Security Raids Expose Domestic Threats in Tunisia

On 31 August, Tunisian armed forces (TAF) officers raided a house in El Karma, approximately 80km south-west of Jebel Semmama, in the Kasserine province and 5km from the Algerian border. The operation sparked violent clashes between the TAF and militant supporters in the neighbourhood, resulting in the deaths of two militants and one civilian. A second raid on 2 September resulted in the arrest of a further 10 suspects in the same area. Elsewhere, three suspected militants were arrested in Manouba, 10km south-west of the capital Tunis on 5 September. Two imams were detained on suspicion of having links to terrorist groups in Ben Arous, approximately 10km south-east of the capital, on the following day.

The raids were precipitated by an ambush attack on a TAF convoy in the Jebel Semmama region on 29 August, in which three TAF personnel were killed and nine injured. The attack was claimed by the Tunisian affiliate of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Uqba ibn Nafa brigade (UIB). It was the second attack on TAF vehicles claimed by the UIB in two months and was followed by a second improvised explosive device (IED) attack in the same area on 4 September, which wounded four soldiers.

In the wider context of the ongoing offensive against Islamic State (IS) fighters in Sirte, in neighbouring Libya, the Tunisian government has drawn attention to the threat posed to Tunisia by IS fighters heading to Tunisia in order to flee the US-supported military campaign. While these returning Tunisian foreign fighters, currently estimated to number approximately 1,000, do indeed pose a threat, the raids over the reporting period demonstrate that Tunisia’s security forces are still battling to contain the country’s domestic militancy challenge. Leaders of radicalisation networks continue to exploit high levels of disaffection among young unemployed residents in the Kasserine and El Kef governorates in order to grow their support bases in the region. This has enabled groups like UIB to persist, despite the TAF increasing their counter-terrorism activities, as well as losses suffered by their parent group AQIM in Algeria. Militant support networks are also frequently reported in the suburbs of greater Tunis; before the arrests this week, a network of over 40 militants was uncovered and arrested in Ariana in May 2016.

The UIB have not demonstrated the capacity to stage attacks outside of the Kasserine, and specifically the militarised Mount Chaambi region near Jebel Semmama where their insurgency has been the most concentrated. However, as the government continues to struggle to implement necessary economic reforms and address persistent socio-economic challenges such as regional inequality and high unemployment, radicalisation from within Tunisia’s borders will continue to pose a wider terrorism threat across the country.