Rousseff on the Ropes: Is this Brazil's chance to reform?

When Eduardo Cunha, President of Brazil’s House of Deputies, opened impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff on 2 December, he appeared to strike the first nail into the coffin of Rousseff’s political career. However, many people appear to have overestimated the average Brazilian’s enthusiasm for Rousseff’s impeachment, and underestimated just how drawn-out impeachment proceedings are likely to be. Rousseff may have been accused of illegal budgeting and her approval ratings may be at an all-time low; yet a successful impeachment bid would require significant popular support to maintain momentum. This is unlikely, as opposition politicians themselves have failed to inspire public confidence in what is a widely perceived as a fundamentally corrupt political system. 

Calls for Rousseff’s impeachment have been echoing across Brazil since at least early 2015 with opposition politicians and protesters blaming her and the PT for a stuttering economy and deeply entrenched government corruption. The focus of much of the discontent is the widening Petrobras corruption scandal, which has so far engulfed both PT and opposition politicians, prominent businesspersons, and several flagship Brazilian companies. However, the prosecutors leading the so-called ‘Lava Jato’ (or ‘Car Wash’) investigation into the Petrobras graft have still yet to find any evidence directly implicating the President. Undeterred, opposition politicians sought an alternative method to impeach Rousseff. In October 2015, Brazil’s Federal Court of Accounts accused Rousseff of breaking the law by manipulating the 2014 budget. It was on the basis of this accusation that, in December 2015, Cunha accepted one of 34 impeachment petitions against Rousseff, thereby initiating proceedings in the lower house of parliament.

Impeachment proceedings against Rousseff are likely to be drawn out. Impeachment proceedings against Rousseff are likely to be drawn out; the commission set up to study the impeachment bid has already been disbanded, meaning that opposition politicians will have to start the process again from scratch. To impeach Rousseff, opposition politicians would need to secure a two-thirds majority in both the House of Deputies and the Senate, an unlikely scenario given that the PT and its allies control both legislative bodies. Furthermore, despite allegations that Rousseff manipulated the 2014 federal accounts, it is widely believed that previous administrations also cooked the books. The charges against the President also pale in comparison with the allegations levelled against several high-profile opposition politicians, including Cunha, who many argue is only out for revenge against Rousseff and the PT. Cunha only accepted the petition against the president after PT politicians backed an investigation to oust him over allegations that he holds USD 16 million of Petrobras graft funds in Swiss bank accounts. 

For now, impeachment proceedings against Rousseff are primarily driven by political infighting in Brasília, rather than popular demonstrations and mass protests. Despite opposition calls for protesters to take to the streets in support of the impeachment bid, the response has been underwhelming. During the most recent rallies in December 2015, protest organisers could only mobilise 80,000 demonstrators across the country. This is a far cry from the one million protesters who rallied in March 2015. Brazilians are all too aware of just how deeply rooted corruption is, and feel increasingly alienated from the political manoeuvrings in Brasília, which could undermine much-needed austerity measures to bring Brazil out of a recession. The economy is expected to shrink by 3.6 percent this year, and there are already fears that the recession may extend to 2017. The average Brazilian consumer is also feeling the pinch with inflation currently running at above ten percent and climbing.

So far, politicians on both sides of the political divide have been implicated in the Petrobras corruption scandal, and no political party can claim the moral high ground. This includes the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), the PT’s principal coalition partner, and the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), the largest opposition party. Both the PMDB and PSDB stand to benefit  from Rousseff’s potential impeachment, and may even form a coalition against the PT. If Rousseff were impeached, Vice President Michel Temer, a PMDB stalwart, would temporarily assume the presidency until elections were held. Over the past year, the PMDB has started to break ranks with the PT in an effort to enhance its own power, potentially in anticipation of Rousseff’s impeachment. Historically, the PMDB has been a ‘big tent’ party with no defined political orientation or agenda, and is perhaps considered even more corrupt than the PT. Cunha and Renan Calheiros, the president of the Senate and a PMDB stalwart, are both currently under investigation for their alleged involvement in the Petrobras corruption scandal. On the other hand, several PSDB politicians have also been embroiled in the scandal.  In short, neither the PMDB nor the PSDB is the political force required to end the political stalemate, lead Brazil out of recession, and combat widespread government corruption.

Few would argue that Rousseff’s government is effective, or that the PT can steer Brazil out of its current economic malaise. However, moves to impeach Rousseff do not necessarily bode well for Brazil. Although investors and an exasperated Brazilian public would likely welcome Rousseff’s impeachment in the short term, ultimately, political deadlock and the widening Petrobras corruption scandal would likely only sink the Brazilian economy even deeper, driving protracted protests and further political instability.