Ripe for Revolt? Maduro's Venezuela Remains.

On 20 May, Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, ordered one of the largest defensive military exercises in the country’s history. According to Maduro, conspirators in Madrid, Bogotá, and Miami are planning to invade Venezuela and have the backing of the country’s so-called oligarchy. A tried and tested tactic in his three years as president, Maduro has often evoked fears of a foreign invasion to distract from government corruption and a collapsing economy. This time, however, the jig appears to be up. As supermarket shelves are empty, hospitals have run out of medication, and violent crime has spiraled out of control, Venezuelans are growing increasingly impatient with Maduro and the ruling Partido Socialista Unido De Venezuela (PSUV). However, with the military still largely on Maduro’s side in addition to the Supreme Court, removing the president and the ruling party is likely to prove challenging and potentially violent. 

Venezuela’s political and economic collapse is closely linked to the mismanagement of its oil revenues. Maduro, like his predecessor Hugo Chávez, pinned Venezuela’s economic growth on the country’s oil reserves, neglecting or nationalising most other industries, including agriculture. However, corrupt government officials have reportedly squandered or stolen an estimated USD 300 billion worth of oil and other government revenues since 1999, leaving the state with little to fall back on. When oil sat above USD 100 a barrel, for example, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company barely broke even while the government expanded social programmes. At around USD 45 a barrel today, the country is on the verge of economic default. With increasingly critical food, water, and electricity shortages, as well as hyperinflation, Venezuelan voters handed the PSUV a decisive defeat in the December 2015 legislative elections. However, Maduro has managed to maintain his hold on power by filling the Supreme Court with Chavista loyalists. 

There are three potential pathways to breaking Venezuela’s political deadlock. The opposition, led by two-time presidential candidate, Henrique Capriles has demanded a recall referendum against Maduro. Although opinion polls indicate that up to 69 percent of Venezuelans want Maduro recalled, the government has ruled out the possibility of a referendum and exerted pressure on the country’s electoral authority to delay a vote. An increasingly desperate opposition bloc, perhaps anticipating further government attempts to derail a recall vote, has therefore pursued a second option and appealed to the military to intervene. According to reports, there is growing dissent among mid-level military officials. Despite continued speculation about a coup in Venezuela, the army has not moved against Maduro’s government. Many military officials, having reportedly enriched themselves through corruption and even drug-trafficking under Chávez and Maduro, lack the incentive to put in power a government that is likely to be far less tolerant of impunity. As such, with few political options, a popular insurrection has emerged as a third and most likely option. Whether or not this is successful will hinge on which side the military takes. For now, there is no definitive indication that the military will turn against Maduro. However, faced with the prospect of having to violently suppress protesters and potentially spark a civil war, the military may balk. 

Amidst a widening economic and political crisis, Maduro’s government is growing increasingly isolated within the region. Domestically, Venezuela’s political landscape is polarised with Maduro and the PSUV all but ruling out dialogue with the opposition. Despite overwhelming support for his recall, Maduro has vowed not to cede power. However, tensions appear to be reaching a breaking point, with widespread shortages and hyperinflation affecting supporters on both sides of the political divide. At this stage, Maduro can rely on the support of the armed forces, although it is uncertain for how much longer this will remain the case.