Renewed Violence in Jerusalem: No Hope for Peace?

Since early October there has been an abrupt spike in violence in Jerusalem, with a series of attacks targeting Israeli citizens, police officers and military personnel. While Palestinian militant and political organisations, such as Hamas, have praised some of the attacks, the majority have been carried out by individual Palestinian civilians without formal ties to any organisation. Moreover, the majority of attacks have been rudimentary, using knives or stones in contrast to the bombings and rocket strikes employed by groups such as Hamas. The Israeli authorities have responded with force. Since the start of October, over 60 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli security forces, either at the scene of attacks or during protests in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. However, while the latest violence has prompted international actors to intervene diplomatically, a renewed commitment to a broader Israeli-Palestinian peace process is unlikely.

The recent wave of violence has followed an escalation of tensions between Israelis and Palestinians at the Al Aqsa mosque compound in east Jerusalem. The area has long been a focal point for conflict between the two communities, with both Jews and Muslims revering Al Aqsa as a holy site. In mid-September, Palestinian Muslims barricaded themselves inside the Al Aqsa compound in response to alleged attempts by Israel to restrict access to the site. Since then, the violence has escalated, and there have been ongoing protests throughout the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip. These developments have taken place almost exactly one year after the Israeli military launched Operation Protective Edge in the Gaza strip, with resulted in the deaths of 66 Israeli soldiers and over 2,100 Palestinians. With the Gaza campaign still fresh in the memory of many observers, there are fears that the recent violence is a prelude to another major escalation.

In the broader context of long-standing tensions, the latest bout of violence has coincided with a low ebb in the prospects for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. Since the last diplomatic push by the US in 2013, the negotiation process has stalled, and relations between key participants in the peace process have deteriorated significantly. The public on both sides has little faith in either the various negotiating parties or even in the actual viability of a negotiated settlement itself. This has given rise to a palpable sense of frustration and fatigue which has been reflected in the recent violence.

The current malaise afflicting the peace process also stems from internal conflict among the negotiating parties. On the Palestinian side, there remains a deep divide between Hamas, which has governed the Gaza strip since 2007, and Fatah, which comprises both the Palestinian Liberation Organisation and the Palestinian Authority and controls the West Bank. Hamas and Fatah have irreconcilable ideological differences, which pose a major obstacle to unified decision making. The implementation of a reconciliation deal between the two groups signed in April 2014 has since stalled, as both factions accuse one another of cooperating with the Israeli security establishment. Moreover, both Hamas and Fatah are increasingly viewed by a significant number of Palestinians as unrepresentative of their interests. The lack of public support for both organisations has led to a paralysis in decision-making, and an inability to achieve the concessions required in the negotiating process.

Consequently, many Israelis doubt that they have a credible partner on the Palestinian side, and public opinion has correspondingly shifted away from the hope of establishing a permanent peace agreement. Similarly, many Palestinians remain unconvinced by the commitment of the current Israeli administration to a peace deal. Recent events have done little to persuade them otherwise. In the lead-up to the March 2015 election, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempted to bolster his support amongst right-wing voters by promising that no two-state solution would be imposed during his term in office. This has enforced the impression amongst some Palestinians that Israel used the negotiation period from 2013 to 2014 to consolidate its hold over current settlements in the West Bank and to lay the foundation for further expansion into the occupied territories.

External actors have often played a significant role in furthering negotiations, with the US and Egypt both having served as the key facilitators of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks over the past decade. However, the political and security environment in the Middle East has resulted in the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks taking a backseat to other issues. In particular, the intensification of the civil wars in Syria and Iraq has shifted international attention away from the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. With the expansion of Islamic State and the increasing involvement of Russia in the Syrian conflict, the US has been hard-pressed to dedicate time and resources to other foreign policy concerns.

Another major area that has kept Washington preoccupied has been the nuclear deal between Iran and the so-called P5+1 (comprising the US, UK, Russia, China, France and Germany), which allows for the removal of economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for constraints on its nuclear development programme. In the wake of the deal, considerable US diplomatic efforts have been made towards assuaging the fears of the Gulf states, in addition to Israel, who suspect that the deal will empower Iran to expand its support for regional militant groups, such as the Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Israel in particular has been extremely vocal in its opposition to the deal, leaving the US with little leverage. As such, recent US engagement with Israel has revolved primarily around efforts to reassure Israel, with Israeli-Palestinian negotiations rarely featuring on the agenda.

On the other hand, the crisis in Syria and Iraq as well as the Iranian nuclear deal have also led to increasing security engagement between Israel and the Gulf Arab states. For instance, in mid-October, reports surfaced that a number of Gulf states were in talks to facilitate the purchase of Iron Dome missile defence systems from Israel. This has prompted some speculation that the improved relations may lead to renewed peace talks, as Israel has previously appealed to the Gulf states to persuade the Palestinian authorities to return to the negotiating table. However, the conversation at present has largely centred on security concerns and has led to little broader diplomatic engagement. In addition, the Gulf states have similarly been preoccupied with national security issues, which range from the rise of Islamic State to uncertainty about the US’s dependability as a security partner and its intentions in the region.

Nonetheless, the recent bout of violence in Jerusalem has forced international actors to respond, with US Secretary of State, John Kerry, meeting Prime Minister Netanyahu in late October to work towards a solution. However, in the current context, broader changes need to take place in order to prompt the resumption of meaningful talks. The primary impediment to this outcome remains the absence of credible negotiating partners on either side, without which both internal and external actors have little motivation to dedicate time and energy to a negotiation process that is likely to collapse. In the meantime, the violence shows no signs of abating.