Red Sea islands spur largest anti-government protest in two years
On 15 April 2016, thousands of protesters participated in mass demonstrations in Tahrir Square in Cairo over an executive decision by President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to transfer sovereign control of the islands of Sanafir and Tiran to Saudi Arabia. Satellite protests also took place in Alexandria where attendance was estimated to exceed 2,000 people, as well as other major cities.
The announcement of the transfer came during the first state visit to Cairo by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud on 7 April. It followed the agreement of an aid and investment package for the Egyptian government from the Saudi Public Investment Fund worth approximately USD 16 billion. The islands are strategically located at the mouth of the Gulf of Aqaba in the Red Sea, in territory that has historically been contested by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel. They are both uninhabited but have been administered by Egypt since 1950, following a decision by Saudi Arabia to transfer them to Egypt amid concerns that they would be annexed by Israel. However, according to President Sisi, sovereignty over the islands had remained with Saudi Arabia during that period and the gesture of transferring control was simply a return of the islands to their rightful place in Saudi-administered territory.
Sisi’s announcement was met with widespread criticism and calls to protest. Several banned organisations, including the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), announced that they would support the demonstrations, which corresponded with warnings from the government that any protest action over the matter was illegal and that demonstrators would face severe consequences. The MB has endured a significant crackdown on gatherings since the ousting of the organisation’s leader and former Egyptian President, Mohammed Morsi, in 2013.
While the island transfer was seen as the trigger, the protests were considered to be more indicative of a wider general discontent with the Sisi administration.
Despite these warnings, the demonstration in Cairo was the largest non-Islamist rally to take place in Egypt since Sisi came to power. While the island transfer was broadly viewed as the trigger, the protests are indicative of wider general discontent with the Sisi administration. Economic stagnation and public anger over the alleged impunity with which the security forces are perceived to operate have fuelled growing anti-government sentiment across the country. This manifested in calls during the protests in both Cairo and Alexandria for the downfall of the Sisi regime.
However, despite calls for further protests scheduled for 25 April, and the likelihood of widespread participation, further demonstrations are unlikely to result in wider political violence or constitute a genuine threat to the Sisi government. While there is growing anti-Sisi sentiment among many sectors of the population, there are others where Sisi still enjoys considerable support. The government and military leaders are invested in preserving his presidency and Sisi’s administration also benefits from strong bilateral relations with many key international allies. The protests do however represent a gradual shift in the scale of unrest occurring in Egypt since Sisi took power, with the risk likely to be sustained in the coming months.